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[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Market Faces Mixed Signals, Short-Term Volatility Likely to Continue] ⑴ Pig iron production continues to decline, easing the pressure of high steel inventory. However, weak demand expectations and the potential for steel mills to resume production after the holiday exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, limiting the upward potential of steel prices. Considering the approaching window for winter stockpiling of raw materials, short-term steel futures prices are expected to mainly follow the fluctuations in raw material prices. ⑵ The rebar 05 contract is likely to fluctuate between 3065 and 3110. In terms of capital structure, the top 20 positions in rebar and hot-rolled coil 05 contracts have not changed significantly, and subsequent capital movements warrant attention. Overall, the supply and demand drivers in the steel market are relatively limited, and short-term trends will be more anchored to cost changes, with both upward and downward potential expected to be limited. ⑶ Operationally, it is recommended to focus on tracking the actual pace and intensity of winter stockpiling of raw materials. From the perspective of actual supply and demand, pig iron production continues to decline, and port inventories have accumulated to an absolute high, limiting the upward potential of iron ore. ⑷ In terms of expectations, steel mills' imported iron ore inventories are already at a relatively low level in recent years, and with the approaching window for winter stockpiling, the expectation of price support at the bottom is gradually strengthening. In the short term, the iron ore 05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 745 and 775 yuan. (5) Fund structure data shows that both long and short positions increased among the top 20 holders, with a more significant increase in short positions, indicating a slightly bearish bias in open interest. Overall, the iron ore market faces both real pressure and expected support, lacking a clear unilateral driver in the short term, and the oscillating pattern is likely to continue. (6) Customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu port reached a new high, while supply at some domestic coal mines is contracting due to the completion of annual production targets and the shift in working faces. On the demand side, although downstream procurement has rebounded somewhat, large-scale concentrated restocking will still take time. (7) In terms of funds, the top 20 holders of the coking coal 05 contract mainly reduced long positions, indicating a cooling of bullish sentiment. Overall, spot prices are mixed, and the window for concentrated winter stockpiling still needs to be awaited. Strategically, a short-term buying approach on dips can be maintained, while paying attention to subsequent changes in fund flows. (8) Environmental protection-related production restrictions in Shanxi, Henan, and other regions have caused some disruption to coke production and supply, but profit per ton of coke remains acceptable, and most coke plants are maintaining stable operations. On the demand side, affected by the continued decline in pig iron production, steel mills' demand for coke is weak, and coke plant inventories are gradually accumulating. The third round of price reductions for spot coke is expected to be implemented this week. (9) From a valuation perspective, the current coke 01 contract price already reflects expectations of about five rounds of price reductions, while the spot market generally expects only about three rounds. The futures market has largely reflected the pessimistic expectations for the spot market, and the valuation has entered a relatively low range. Overall, the coke market is in a game between low valuation and weak drivers. (10) The coke 01 contract has shown resilience due to its low valuation, outperforming the 05 contract. Short-term trends are expected to continue to fluctuate with coking coal; close attention should be paid to changes in steel mill procurement schedules. The manganese silicon market is showing a pattern of increased supply and decreased demand.