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[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Under Pressure, Most Commodities Expected to Weaken] ⑴ Geopolitically, the EU's involvement in the Ukraine issue and progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations have not yielded significant direct results, and a short-term end to the conflict is unlikely. Meanwhile, a complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela has been ordered, perpetuating geopolitical risks. However, global land and sea inventories remain high, downstream refined oil demand is weak, and inventories have risen beyond seasonal norms, suggesting crude oil prices will likely fluctuate weakly. ⑵ The recent geopolitical situation has become more complex. While Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue, a short-term outcome is unlikely, increasing the probability of military action. However, due to weakening downstream demand, fuel oil prices are expected to follow suit with a weak trend. Considering geopolitical risks, a long asphalt and short fuel oil hedging strategy could be considered. ⑶ Losses in the float glass industry are worsening, with increased expectations of cold repairs and production conversions. However, the market is concerned that a premature rebound in prices could lead to delays or cancellations of cold repair plans, and with large midstream inventories, both spot and futures prices have fallen again. Overall, demand for completed real estate projects has fallen sharply, and glass demand has weakened significantly year-on-year. The "low valuation and weak driver" are evident, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at low levels. (4) If the year-end cold repair plans are gradually implemented, the downside for glass prices will be limited. The Alashan Phase II project has been ignited, and new production lines will also be ignited, further highlighting the supply and demand pressure on soda ash. On Monday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 38,700 tons compared to last Thursday, a rise of 2.59%. (5) Today, the soda ash operating rate is 82.05%. Futures and spot basis quotes show: Hebei warehouse delivery 01 contract premium of 20 points, Shahe delivery premium of 10 to 20 points, and Henan plant premium of 20 points. Overall, with increased maintenance at major plants in December, soda ash can basically achieve supply and demand balance supported by low operating rates. (6) However, the market is still suppressed by declining costs, expectations of supply recovery, and overcapacity. Strategically, short selling on rallies is advisable. On December 17th, Shandong liquid soda ash prices remained stable in some areas, with individual companies making slight price adjustments due to their own sales situations. After a period of destocking, some companies have begun to rebound at low prices. (7) However, caustic soda remains in a state of high supply and high inventory, and with the continued decline in alumina prices and the strengthening of expectations for production cuts, non-aluminum demand is in the off-season. Caustic soda prices may continue to fluctuate weakly at low levels, and the strategy can be to short sell on rallies. (8) Today, the spot price in Taicang is 2130 yuan, up 27 yuan; the price in the northern part of Inner Mongolia is 1942.5 yuan, down 12.5 yuan from the previous week. The methanol market fluctuated narrowly today, with average transaction volume in enterprise auctions. The basis of the methanol market at ports was relatively strong, and the port inventory decreased by 15,600 tons this week. (9) Due to the continuous realization of the Iranian gas restriction factor, there is a risk of reduced imports in the far month. The judgment of near-term weakness and far-term strength is maintained, and the room for further decline in the 05 contract may be limited. In the short term, the methanol market is expected to continue to be stable, and the price fluctuation range will narrow.