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[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Logic for the Ferrous Metals Market Shifts to Cost Support and Winter Stockpiling] ⑴ The current steel market continues its pattern of weak supply and demand and declining inventory, further easing the pressure of high inventory. Downstream buyers are more willing to purchase, and the market trading logic is gradually shifting towards winter stockpiling of raw materials, strengthening cost support expectations. In the short term, the market may move upward along with raw material prices. ⑵ However, demand expectations remain weak, coupled with the expectation of steel mills resuming production after New Year's Day, which may limit the upside potential of finished steel prices. Fund structure data shows that short positions in the rebar 05 contract decreased more significantly, while the hot-rolled coil 05 contract saw increases in both long and short positions, with short positions increasing more significantly, resulting in an overall bearish trend in open interest. ⑶ In summary, the supply and demand drivers in the steel market are relatively limited, and short-term trends will depend more on changes in costs. Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a buy-on-dips strategy and avoid chasing the market higher. ⑷ From the perspective of actual supply and demand, pig iron production continues to decline, and port inventories have risen to absolute highs, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for iron ore prices. In terms of expectations, current steel mill imported iron ore inventories are at a relatively low level in recent years. With the winter stockpiling window approaching, the expectation of price support at the bottom is gradually strengthening. (5) In the short term, market trading focus is shifting towards stockpiling logic, and raw material prices may outperform finished steel prices. Regarding the capital structure, both long and short positions among the top 20 holders have increased, with long positions showing a more significant increase, and the overall position change is slightly bullish. (6) Customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu port remains high, while domestic supply continues to contract. On the demand side, downstream purchasing intentions have strengthened, but large-scale concentrated stockpiling has not yet occurred. (7) In terms of capital, the top 20 holders of the main 05 contract have slightly increased long positions, while short positions have changed only slightly, resulting in an overall bullish position structure. In summary, with the winter stockpiling window approaching, the upward momentum of spot prices has strengthened. Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a short-term buying strategy on pullbacks and closely monitor subsequent changes in capital flows. (8) Environmental protection-related production restrictions in Shanxi, Henan, Shaanxi, and Hebei provinces have caused some disruption to coke production and supply. However, thanks to reasonable profit margins per ton of coke, most coke producers have maintained stable operating rates. (9) On the demand side, affected by the continued decline in pig iron production, steel mills' demand for coke has been weak, leading to an accumulation of inventory at coke plants. The third round of price reductions for spot coke is expected to be implemented soon. (10) From a valuation perspective, current coke futures prices have largely reflected pessimistic expectations in the spot market, and valuations are in a relatively low range. Overall, the coke market presents a game between "low valuation" and "weak drivers." Short-term trends are expected to continue to fluctuate following coking coal prices. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in steel mill procurement schedules. (11) The manganese silicon market presents a pattern of both supply and demand reductions. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers has decreased slightly month-on-month, and demand has also continued to decline. Plant inventories have continued to accumulate, resulting in a weak overall supply and demand structure.