Download App

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Commodities Affected by Both Geopolitical and Fundamental Factors] ⑴ Geopolitically, the EU's involvement in the Ukraine issue and the progress made in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, though with limited direct effects, suggest a low probability of a short-term end to the conflict. The US has ordered a comprehensive blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, continuing geopolitical risks. ⑵ Regarding crude oil, global land and sea inventories remain high, downstream refined oil demand is weak, and inventories have risen above seasonal levels, suggesting crude oil prices will likely fluctuate with a downward bias. ⑶ Regarding fuel oil, recent geopolitical tensions have become more complex, but crude oil prices are expected to follow suit with a downward bias due to weakening downstream demand. Considering geopolitical risks, a long position in asphalt and a short position in fuel oil is recommended. ⑷ Regarding glass, float glass manufacturers experienced a slowdown in overall shipments this week, industry inventories rose slightly, demand weakened, and orders for sample processing plants declined month-on-month. ⑸ Real estate completion demand has fallen sharply, glass demand has weakened significantly year-on-year, and midstream inventories are large. The "low valuation and weak driver" are evident, suggesting prices will likely fluctuate at low levels. If year-end cold repair plans are gradually implemented, the downside potential will be limited. (6) Regarding soda ash, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 33,700 tons this Thursday compared to Monday, a drop of 2.20%. The operating rate of soda ash plants this week was 82.74%. (7) Overall, with more major plants undergoing maintenance in December, the soda ash market can basically achieve a supply-demand balance supported by the low operating rate. However, the market is still suppressed by expectations of a recovery in distant supply and the background of overcapacity, and is expected to fluctuate at low levels. (8) Regarding caustic soda, the liquid caustic soda market in eastern Shandong was relatively strong this week. After orders from outside the province began to be fulfilled, enterprise inventories declined, and some enterprises had a strong atmosphere of price increases. (9) After a phase of destocking, some enterprises began to rebound at low prices. At the end of the month, some chlorine-consuming units reduced their operating rates due to power plant maintenance plans. There is still a risk of a decline in liquid chlorine prices around New Year's Day. Do not blindly short sell, but the market is still in a state of high supply and high inventory, and the short-selling space for a rebound is also limited in the short term. (10) Regarding methanol, today's spot price in Taicang is 2155, and the price in Inner Mongolia North Line is 1925. Port inventories decreased by 15,600 tons this week, indicating a strengthening market sentiment. (11) Due to the continued implementation of Iran's gas restrictions, there is a risk of reduced imports in the far-month contracts. The judgment of near-term weakness and far-term strength is maintained. The downside potential for the May contract may be limited, making it suitable to buy on dips. In the short term, the methanol market is expected to remain stable, with price fluctuations narrowing.