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2026-01-09 17:32:46
[Global bond market divergence intensifies, with US Treasury yields soaring, yield spreads highlighting the gap between growth and policy] ⑴ US Treasury yields are currently significantly higher than those of most major economies, with the two-year yield at 3.511% and the ten-year yield at 4.188%, forming a clear yield high. ⑵ Compared to the US, yields in core Eurozone countries are relatively low. German two-year and ten-year bond yields are 2.117% and 2.865% respectively, with yield spreads of -139.4 basis points and -132.3 basis points compared to the US. ⑶ Among major economies, only Australia and the UK have yields close to or slightly higher than the US. For example, the UK ten-year bond yield is 4.404%, 21.6 basis points higher than the US, reflecting their different inflation and monetary policy paths. ⑷ Japanese government bond yields are at an absolute low, with two-year yields at 1.150% and ten-year yields at 2.097%, with yield spreads of -236.1 basis points and -209.1 basis points compared to the US, highlighting its unique monetary policy environment. (5) Taking Germany as a benchmark, significant yield differentials exist within the Eurozone, with the Italian 10-year bond yield exceeding that of Germany by 63.7 basis points, indicating a divergence in credit risk and growth expectations within the region. (6) The broad yield spread structure reflects significant differences in economic growth, inflation prospects, and central bank policy stances among countries, attracting cross-border capital flows and influencing the relative valuations of global assets. (7) Future market focus will be on how long the misalignment of monetary policy cycles among major central banks will last, and how any unexpected changes in economic data could quickly reshape the current yield spread pattern.
