A safe-haven rush has erupted! Amid geopolitical risks and concerns about the Federal Reserve, where is gold headed after hitting a new high of $4,600?
2026-01-12 14:40:20
The US military intervention in Venezuela, President Trump's threat of military action against the volatile situation in Iran, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the White House's insistence on acquiring Greenland have all kept markets on edge. This has continued to damage global risk sentiment, driving safe-haven funds into the precious metals market.
On Monday (January 12), spot gold fluctuated upwards during the Asian and European sessions, continuing the gains of the previous two trading days. It once touched a record high of $4,600.89 per ounce during the day and is currently trading around $4,575 per ounce, with a daily increase of about 1.45%.
Meanwhile, market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence dragged the dollar down from a one-month high of 99.27 reached in the previous trading day, which was another key factor boosting gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
However, the US jobs data released last Friday weakened market expectations for aggressive monetary easing in 2026, which may limit further upward momentum for gold. The market is awaiting the US CPI data to be released on Tuesday to further clarify the direction of gold prices.
Following the US strikes against Venezuela in early January, US President Trump stated that Washington would temporarily assume control of the Venezuelan administration to oversee the transition. Furthermore, Trump posted on his social media platform, declaring himself acting president of Venezuela.
The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous U.S. officials, reported that Trump is considering punishing Iran for its crackdown on massive anti-government protests that have left more than 500 people dead. This, along with the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, continues to fuel geopolitical risks.
In fact, a drone strike by Ukraine last Saturday triggered a fire at an oil storage depot in Russia's Volgograd region in the south. Meanwhile, Russia used Oreshnik hypersonic medium-range ballistic missiles during a nighttime strike on the Lviv region, near the EU and NATO borders.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the threat of criminal charges against him stemmed from the Fed setting interest rates based on assessments of what is best for the public, rather than following the president's preferences. Powell added that the investigation's findings will determine the Fed's future policy direction.
After Friday's U.S. jobs report showed the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December from 4.6%, traders reduced their bets on further rate cuts in 2026. Amid growing concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, the non-farm payroll data may have failed to have a significant impact on dollar bulls.
Looking ahead, no market-moving US economic data was released on Monday, meaning the dollar and precious metals will likely be influenced by comments from influential FOMC members. However, market focus remains on the upcoming US inflation data this week.
From a technical perspective, the upward trend over the past month or so has been moving along an upward-sloping channel. This indicates that the short-term upward trend is solid, which is favorable for gold bulls.
In addition, gold prices held steady above the upward-sloping 200-period simple moving average (SMA, 4310.07), which reinforced the positive trend and provided dynamic support.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator line is above the signal line and remains in the positive zone, while the expanding histogram shows that bullish momentum is strengthening.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 75, entering overbought territory, which may limit short-term gains and cause prices to consolidate near the upper channel line. If a pullback occurs, support will be found at the lower channel line around $4365, where the rising 200-period SMA will provide support for the overall bullish bias. If prices can hold above this support level, the upward channel will remain intact, and a clear break above the channel resistance level will open up space for a new round of upward movement.
(Spot gold 4-hour chart, source: FX678)
At 14:40 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4572.48 per ounce.
On Monday (January 12), spot gold fluctuated upwards during the Asian and European sessions, continuing the gains of the previous two trading days. It once touched a record high of $4,600.89 per ounce during the day and is currently trading around $4,575 per ounce, with a daily increase of about 1.45%.
Meanwhile, market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence dragged the dollar down from a one-month high of 99.27 reached in the previous trading day, which was another key factor boosting gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
However, the US jobs data released last Friday weakened market expectations for aggressive monetary easing in 2026, which may limit further upward momentum for gold. The market is awaiting the US CPI data to be released on Tuesday to further clarify the direction of gold prices.
Safe-haven demand and concerns about the Federal Reserve continue to support gold prices.
Following the US strikes against Venezuela in early January, US President Trump stated that Washington would temporarily assume control of the Venezuelan administration to oversee the transition. Furthermore, Trump posted on his social media platform, declaring himself acting president of Venezuela.
The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous U.S. officials, reported that Trump is considering punishing Iran for its crackdown on massive anti-government protests that have left more than 500 people dead. This, along with the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, continues to fuel geopolitical risks.
In fact, a drone strike by Ukraine last Saturday triggered a fire at an oil storage depot in Russia's Volgograd region in the south. Meanwhile, Russia used Oreshnik hypersonic medium-range ballistic missiles during a nighttime strike on the Lviv region, near the EU and NATO borders.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the threat of criminal charges against him stemmed from the Fed setting interest rates based on assessments of what is best for the public, rather than following the president's preferences. Powell added that the investigation's findings will determine the Fed's future policy direction.
After Friday's U.S. jobs report showed the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December from 4.6%, traders reduced their bets on further rate cuts in 2026. Amid growing concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, the non-farm payroll data may have failed to have a significant impact on dollar bulls.
Looking ahead, no market-moving US economic data was released on Monday, meaning the dollar and precious metals will likely be influenced by comments from influential FOMC members. However, market focus remains on the upcoming US inflation data this week.
Technical Analysis: Gold's Bullish Potential Remains Solid
From a technical perspective, the upward trend over the past month or so has been moving along an upward-sloping channel. This indicates that the short-term upward trend is solid, which is favorable for gold bulls.
In addition, gold prices held steady above the upward-sloping 200-period simple moving average (SMA, 4310.07), which reinforced the positive trend and provided dynamic support.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator line is above the signal line and remains in the positive zone, while the expanding histogram shows that bullish momentum is strengthening.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 75, entering overbought territory, which may limit short-term gains and cause prices to consolidate near the upper channel line. If a pullback occurs, support will be found at the lower channel line around $4365, where the rising 200-period SMA will provide support for the overall bullish bias. If prices can hold above this support level, the upward channel will remain intact, and a clear break above the channel resistance level will open up space for a new round of upward movement.
(Spot gold 4-hour chart, source: FX678)
At 14:40 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4572.48 per ounce.
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