Silver Market Analysis: Spot silver breaks through $90/ounce for the first time.
2026-01-15 01:03:32
As January's market progresses, silver has become one of the most surprising assets. It has now risen for four consecutive trading days, with a short-term gain exceeding 18%, making it one of the most attractive assets in the current market. Driven by fluctuating market confidence and declining attractiveness of the US bond market, buying pressure has remained strong, prompting funds to flow back into precious metals. As long as these driving factors persist, buying pressure on silver is likely to remain strong in the coming trading days.
Market confidence is weak, and demand for safe-haven assets is rising.
In early 2026, geopolitical events occurred frequently in many parts of the world. Following military intervention in Venezuela, political tensions in Latin America escalated, the situation in the Middle East also became increasingly severe, and large-scale protests erupted in Iran, fueling speculation about potential Western intervention. Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent involvement in a criminal investigation sparked widespread discussion about the potential loss of the Fed's independence. These multiple factors combined resulted in a lack of market confidence at the start of the year, leading to a rise in short-term risk aversion.
Against this backdrop, although the Fear & Greed Index attempted to rebound in early 2026, it has consistently hovered around 55 points, remaining in the neutral range. Furthermore, the index has recently weakened again, struggling to stay stably in the "greed" zone, which confirms that current market sentiment is dominated by hesitation.
Faced with numerous uncertainties, precious metals often solidify their status as safe-haven assets. Just as gold attracts a large influx of defensive funds, silver has also become a temporary safe-haven option for investors in the current political and economic climate. In fact, demand for silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has begun to grow steadily. As of January 12 and the two trading days prior, the SLV Silver ETF recorded net inflows, with a single-day inflow of nearly $100 million, which to some extent restored institutional confidence in short-term demand for silver.
With market confidence indicators fluctuating and investors seeking temporary safe-haven assets, silver demand has begun to stabilize. As long as this market environment persists, buying pressure on silver is likely to remain strong in the coming trading days.
Lower US Treasury yields are a boon for silver prices.
The correlation between rising silver prices and declining US 10-year Treasury yields is another key influencing factor. Looking back over the past 50 weeks, the correlation coefficient between the two is approximately -0.55, showing a clear negative correlation. As the US 10-year Treasury yield fell back to around 4.1%, silver prices surged in tandem, reaching a multi-week high. However, it should be noted that the correlation coefficient may change over time.
The declining attractiveness of the US bond market has prompted funds to shift towards alternative assets such as precious metals. Given silver's temporary safe-haven properties, the decline in Treasury yields has led to lower returns on fixed-income assets, which is expected to continue to support silver demand in the short term, thereby keeping buying pressure on spot silver at a high level.
Technical Outlook for Silver
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
Bullish Trend Dominates: Since the end of November, silver has embarked on a stronger upward trend than its previous long-term trajectory. This new trend line has consistently dominated, driving silver prices to new all-time highs. So far, no significant pullback has emerged to threaten this trend, making this trend line a key technical reference indicator for future trading. However, as silver prices continue to rise, the upward momentum may gradually exhaust itself, and the risk of a short-term pullback should not be ignored.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has broken through 70, indicating that silver is in an overbought state. Furthermore, despite silver prices continuing to reach new highs, the RSI is beginning to show a bearish divergence. Both signals warn that buying momentum may be excessive, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD histogram remains above the zero line, indicating that short-term moving average momentum is still in positive territory. This means that although a pullback may occur, the current silver price movement is still dominated by buying power.
Key focus price level
$91.11 – Key resistance level: This price level represents the latest all-time high. If silver prices can find sustained buying support above this level, they are likely to continue their strong upward trend in the short term.
$79.38 – Recent Support Level: This price level is the previous high. If silver prices experience a short-term pullback, this price level may become an important support area.
$70.33 – Key Support Level: This price level coincides with recent lows and the upward trend line. If silver prices continue to approach this level, the current uptrend may be at risk, and the market could turn clearly bearish.
Market confidence is weak, and demand for safe-haven assets is rising.
In early 2026, geopolitical events occurred frequently in many parts of the world. Following military intervention in Venezuela, political tensions in Latin America escalated, the situation in the Middle East also became increasingly severe, and large-scale protests erupted in Iran, fueling speculation about potential Western intervention. Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent involvement in a criminal investigation sparked widespread discussion about the potential loss of the Fed's independence. These multiple factors combined resulted in a lack of market confidence at the start of the year, leading to a rise in short-term risk aversion.
Against this backdrop, although the Fear & Greed Index attempted to rebound in early 2026, it has consistently hovered around 55 points, remaining in the neutral range. Furthermore, the index has recently weakened again, struggling to stay stably in the "greed" zone, which confirms that current market sentiment is dominated by hesitation.
Faced with numerous uncertainties, precious metals often solidify their status as safe-haven assets. Just as gold attracts a large influx of defensive funds, silver has also become a temporary safe-haven option for investors in the current political and economic climate. In fact, demand for silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has begun to grow steadily. As of January 12 and the two trading days prior, the SLV Silver ETF recorded net inflows, with a single-day inflow of nearly $100 million, which to some extent restored institutional confidence in short-term demand for silver.
With market confidence indicators fluctuating and investors seeking temporary safe-haven assets, silver demand has begun to stabilize. As long as this market environment persists, buying pressure on silver is likely to remain strong in the coming trading days.
Lower US Treasury yields are a boon for silver prices.
The correlation between rising silver prices and declining US 10-year Treasury yields is another key influencing factor. Looking back over the past 50 weeks, the correlation coefficient between the two is approximately -0.55, showing a clear negative correlation. As the US 10-year Treasury yield fell back to around 4.1%, silver prices surged in tandem, reaching a multi-week high. However, it should be noted that the correlation coefficient may change over time.
The declining attractiveness of the US bond market has prompted funds to shift towards alternative assets such as precious metals. Given silver's temporary safe-haven properties, the decline in Treasury yields has led to lower returns on fixed-income assets, which is expected to continue to support silver demand in the short term, thereby keeping buying pressure on spot silver at a high level.
Technical Outlook for Silver
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
Bullish Trend Dominates: Since the end of November, silver has embarked on a stronger upward trend than its previous long-term trajectory. This new trend line has consistently dominated, driving silver prices to new all-time highs. So far, no significant pullback has emerged to threaten this trend, making this trend line a key technical reference indicator for future trading. However, as silver prices continue to rise, the upward momentum may gradually exhaust itself, and the risk of a short-term pullback should not be ignored.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has broken through 70, indicating that silver is in an overbought state. Furthermore, despite silver prices continuing to reach new highs, the RSI is beginning to show a bearish divergence. Both signals warn that buying momentum may be excessive, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD histogram remains above the zero line, indicating that short-term moving average momentum is still in positive territory. This means that although a pullback may occur, the current silver price movement is still dominated by buying power.
Key focus price level
$91.11 – Key resistance level: This price level represents the latest all-time high. If silver prices can find sustained buying support above this level, they are likely to continue their strong upward trend in the short term.
$79.38 – Recent Support Level: This price level is the previous high. If silver prices experience a short-term pullback, this price level may become an important support area.
$70.33 – Key Support Level: This price level coincides with recent lows and the upward trend line. If silver prices continue to approach this level, the current uptrend may be at risk, and the market could turn clearly bearish.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
