Geopolitical risks and concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence are escalating, pushing gold prices close to $4,950 and setting a new all-time high.
2026-01-23 10:13:27
Gold prices continued their strong performance during Friday's Asian trading session, with XAU/USD briefly reaching around $4,950, a new all-time high.
Gold has continued to attract capital this week, with a weekly gain exceeding 7%, indicating a significant increase in safe-haven demand. The primary factor driving the price increase remains geopolitical uncertainty.
Recently, tensions surrounding Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland have escalated repeatedly, leading to a significant cooling of market risk appetite and a rapid flow of funds into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.
Amid rising global macroeconomic uncertainty, gold's safe-haven appeal has become more prominent. Meanwhile, market attention continues to intensify regarding the outlook for US monetary policy. Investors are closely awaiting President Trump's decision on who will succeed current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
The market generally believes that if the new chairman's policy stance leans towards easing, it may further strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts this year, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and providing medium-term support for gold prices.
However, the upward movement in gold prices also faces certain restraining factors. Negotiations surrounding Greenland have shown signs of easing, with Trump stating he will temporarily suspend tariffs on European countries opposing the plan and that the US and NATO have reached a framework agreement on future arrangements. This statement has somewhat weakened the safe-haven premium, making short-term consolidation in gold prices possible.
"Gold may experience a period of consolidation, but the overall bullish trend remains solid. Expectations of interest rate cuts, persistent geopolitical risks, and central bank buying all contribute to a clearly upward risk skew for gold prices." — ING Groep NV Commodity Strategist
From a technical perspective, gold prices remain in a strong uptrend. The daily chart shows gold prices continuing to rise along an upward channel, holding steadily above the medium- and long-term moving average system. The trend structure remains intact, and no clear reversal signal has yet appeared.
Regarding key price levels, the $4,950 area constitutes the current short-term resistance and is also a psychological barrier. If the price can effectively break through and hold above this area, gold is expected to open up further upside potential, extending towards higher targets. Conversely, if short-term momentum weakens, gold prices may consolidate around these high levels.
On the downside, the $4880–$4900 range forms a significant short-term support zone. This area is both a previous breakout platform and a key defensive zone for the bulls. Even if a technical pullback occurs, as long as the price remains above this range, the overall bullish trend will remain intact.
Further support is seen around $4,800, which corresponds to the low of the previous consolidation zone and has strong technical significance. Regarding momentum indicators, although some short-term indicators have entered overbought territory, suggesting a possible short-term pullback or consolidation to digest gains, the daily momentum remains in a strong zone, and no clear bearish divergence signal has yet appeared.
This suggests that the current pullback risk is more of a matter of time before a trend reversal. Overall, supported by both macroeconomic and technical factors, gold remains in a strong uptrend, and short-term fluctuations do not alter the dominant medium-term bullish trend.
Editor's Note:
This round of gold price increases is not driven by a single event, but rather by the combined effects of safe-haven demand, policy expectations, and structural buying. Even if some geopolitical risks ease temporarily, given the rising uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, the trend towards looser global monetary conditions, and central banks' continued allocation of gold, any pullback in gold prices is more likely to be seen as a correction rather than a trend reversal.
Overall, as long as macroeconomic uncertainties do not subside significantly, gold will continue to maintain a high and strong level, and the market's recognition of its long-term investment value continues to increase.
Gold has continued to attract capital this week, with a weekly gain exceeding 7%, indicating a significant increase in safe-haven demand. The primary factor driving the price increase remains geopolitical uncertainty.
Recently, tensions surrounding Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland have escalated repeatedly, leading to a significant cooling of market risk appetite and a rapid flow of funds into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.
Amid rising global macroeconomic uncertainty, gold's safe-haven appeal has become more prominent. Meanwhile, market attention continues to intensify regarding the outlook for US monetary policy. Investors are closely awaiting President Trump's decision on who will succeed current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
The market generally believes that if the new chairman's policy stance leans towards easing, it may further strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts this year, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and providing medium-term support for gold prices.
However, the upward movement in gold prices also faces certain restraining factors. Negotiations surrounding Greenland have shown signs of easing, with Trump stating he will temporarily suspend tariffs on European countries opposing the plan and that the US and NATO have reached a framework agreement on future arrangements. This statement has somewhat weakened the safe-haven premium, making short-term consolidation in gold prices possible.
"Gold may experience a period of consolidation, but the overall bullish trend remains solid. Expectations of interest rate cuts, persistent geopolitical risks, and central bank buying all contribute to a clearly upward risk skew for gold prices." — ING Groep NV Commodity Strategist
From a technical perspective, gold prices remain in a strong uptrend. The daily chart shows gold prices continuing to rise along an upward channel, holding steadily above the medium- and long-term moving average system. The trend structure remains intact, and no clear reversal signal has yet appeared.
Regarding key price levels, the $4,950 area constitutes the current short-term resistance and is also a psychological barrier. If the price can effectively break through and hold above this area, gold is expected to open up further upside potential, extending towards higher targets. Conversely, if short-term momentum weakens, gold prices may consolidate around these high levels.
On the downside, the $4880–$4900 range forms a significant short-term support zone. This area is both a previous breakout platform and a key defensive zone for the bulls. Even if a technical pullback occurs, as long as the price remains above this range, the overall bullish trend will remain intact.
Further support is seen around $4,800, which corresponds to the low of the previous consolidation zone and has strong technical significance. Regarding momentum indicators, although some short-term indicators have entered overbought territory, suggesting a possible short-term pullback or consolidation to digest gains, the daily momentum remains in a strong zone, and no clear bearish divergence signal has yet appeared.
This suggests that the current pullback risk is more of a matter of time before a trend reversal. Overall, supported by both macroeconomic and technical factors, gold remains in a strong uptrend, and short-term fluctuations do not alter the dominant medium-term bullish trend.
Editor's Note:
This round of gold price increases is not driven by a single event, but rather by the combined effects of safe-haven demand, policy expectations, and structural buying. Even if some geopolitical risks ease temporarily, given the rising uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, the trend towards looser global monetary conditions, and central banks' continued allocation of gold, any pullback in gold prices is more likely to be seen as a correction rather than a trend reversal.
Overall, as long as macroeconomic uncertainties do not subside significantly, gold will continue to maintain a high and strong level, and the market's recognition of its long-term investment value continues to increase.
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