Super Week is Coming: A Global Market Trading Outlook Following the Fed Decision
2026-01-23 19:42:12
Next week (January 24-30), global financial markets will be in a busy period with central bank decisions, key economic data, and policy moves. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be the absolute focus, with inflation, employment, and industrial data from multiple countries being released simultaneously. Coupled with the CFTC Commitment of Traders report and Trump's public speech, each event could trigger a repricing of market funds. Traders need to keep a close eye on the pace and seize trading opportunities amidst the interplay of policy and data.
On Saturday (January 24), the CFTC released its weekly COT (Committee on the Occupations of Traders) report, which is one of the few opportunities for traders to obtain publicly available and transparent records of the positions of various market participants. This allows them to track the direction and position changes of major funds in various instruments.
On Monday (January 26) , the State Council Information Office of China held a press conference on the business work and operation in 2025.
The U.S. releases November durable goods orders and the January Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, reflecting the state of U.S. manufacturing and business activity.
The January IFO Business Climate Index was released.
On Tuesday (January 27), China released the year-on-year profit rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size in December, which directly reflects the operating conditions of domestic industrial enterprises.
The U.S. released its January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, reflecting U.S. residents' willingness to spend and market expectations.
Trump is scheduled to deliver a broad-based speech in Iowa, and his policy statements may have a short-term impact on market risk appetite.
On Wednesday (January 28), the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the high-quality development of state-owned assets and central enterprises in 2025.
Australia has released its fourth-quarter CPI, and its inflation performance will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's subsequent monetary policy direction.
The release of the minutes from Japan's December monetary policy meeting offers a glimpse into the Bank of Japan's internal considerations for policy adjustments.
Canada released its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and the Bank of Canada governor held a press conference to release the latest signals on Canadian monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision after midnight that night, and the market's attention will begin to focus on the Fed's policy direction.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3:00 a.m. on Thursday (January 29). The market expects it to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. As a result, the dollar index may rebound or start its rebound earlier than expected.
Powell will then hold a press conference, the contents of which may contain unexpected points and become a key catalyst for market volatility.
The European Parliament will then release the January consumer confidence index and industrial sentiment index, reflecting the overall economic sentiment in the Eurozone.
The U.S. releases its initial and continuing jobless claims figures for this week, along with the November trade balance, reflecting the state of the U.S. job market and international trade.
On Friday (January 30), Japan released its Tokyo unemployment rate, while the unemployment rates for the Eurozone and Germany were also released today, reflecting the fundamentals of the employment markets in many countries.
Germany will also release its January CPI, which will be an important reference for the Eurozone's inflation trend.
The US will release its December PPI data tonight, which leads CPI by 3-6 months. Its performance will influence market expectations for future US inflation. The Chicago Price PMI, also released at the same time, will provide additional information on US manufacturing prices.
The CME will release the CFTC Commitment of Traders report early that morning; the report is routinely based on Tuesday's data.
In addition to core economic data and central bank decisions, traders should also be wary of three potential risks: First, if the Fed’s interest rate decision and Powell’s speech contain unexpected statements, it will directly trigger sharp fluctuations in the US dollar, US stocks and non-US currencies.
Second, if Trump's policy statements in his speech involve areas such as trade and geopolitics, they could quickly change market risk appetite.
Third, if inflation and employment data from multiple countries deviate significantly from market expectations, it will correct the market's pricing of monetary policies of central banks in various countries; fourth, major global funds complete portfolio adjustments using the CFTC positioning report, which may trigger trend-based market movements in related commodities.
Fifth, the poor performance of core economic data from the Eurozone and Germany may exacerbate market concerns about the Eurozone's economic recovery.
Position reports come first, capturing market fund flows.
On Saturday (January 24), the CFTC released its weekly COT (Committee on the Occupations of Traders) report, which is one of the few opportunities for traders to obtain publicly available and transparent records of the positions of various market participants. This allows them to track the direction and position changes of major funds in various instruments.
Data from China, Europe, and the US were released simultaneously, with business and economic indicators leading the way.
On Monday (January 26) , the State Council Information Office of China held a press conference on the business work and operation in 2025.
The U.S. releases November durable goods orders and the January Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, reflecting the state of U.S. manufacturing and business activity.
The January IFO Business Climate Index was released.
China's industrial profits revealed; US consumer spending and Trump's speech draw attention.
On Tuesday (January 27), China released the year-on-year profit rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size in December, which directly reflects the operating conditions of domestic industrial enterprises.
The U.S. released its January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, reflecting U.S. residents' willingness to spend and market expectations.
Trump is scheduled to deliver a broad-based speech in Iowa, and his policy statements may have a short-term impact on market risk appetite.
State-owned enterprises and central government-owned enterprises release data from Australia and Japan, followed by the Bank of Canada's policy decision.
On Wednesday (January 28), the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the high-quality development of state-owned assets and central enterprises in 2025.
Australia has released its fourth-quarter CPI, and its inflation performance will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's subsequent monetary policy direction.
The release of the minutes from Japan's December monetary policy meeting offers a glimpse into the Bank of Japan's internal considerations for policy adjustments.
Canada released its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and the Bank of Canada governor held a press conference to release the latest signals on Canadian monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision after midnight that night, and the market's attention will begin to focus on the Fed's policy direction.
The Fed's decision will be the core factor, with data and employment indicators from Europe and the US following suit.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3:00 a.m. on Thursday (January 29). The market expects it to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. As a result, the dollar index may rebound or start its rebound earlier than expected.
Powell will then hold a press conference, the contents of which may contain unexpected points and become a key catalyst for market volatility.
The European Parliament will then release the January consumer confidence index and industrial sentiment index, reflecting the overall economic sentiment in the Eurozone.
The U.S. releases its initial and continuing jobless claims figures for this week, along with the November trade balance, reflecting the state of the U.S. job market and international trade.
Global unemployment and inflation closed out, with PPI and PMI setting the tone for short-term expectations.
On Friday (January 30), Japan released its Tokyo unemployment rate, while the unemployment rates for the Eurozone and Germany were also released today, reflecting the fundamentals of the employment markets in many countries.
Germany will also release its January CPI, which will be an important reference for the Eurozone's inflation trend.
The US will release its December PPI data tonight, which leads CPI by 3-6 months. Its performance will influence market expectations for future US inflation. The Chicago Price PMI, also released at the same time, will provide additional information on US manufacturing prices.
The CME will release the CFTC Commitment of Traders report early that morning; the report is routinely based on Tuesday's data.
Risk warning: Unexpected policy and data developments require close monitoring.
In addition to core economic data and central bank decisions, traders should also be wary of three potential risks: First, if the Fed’s interest rate decision and Powell’s speech contain unexpected statements, it will directly trigger sharp fluctuations in the US dollar, US stocks and non-US currencies.
Second, if Trump's policy statements in his speech involve areas such as trade and geopolitics, they could quickly change market risk appetite.
Third, if inflation and employment data from multiple countries deviate significantly from market expectations, it will correct the market's pricing of monetary policies of central banks in various countries; fourth, major global funds complete portfolio adjustments using the CFTC positioning report, which may trigger trend-based market movements in related commodities.
Fifth, the poor performance of core economic data from the Eurozone and Germany may exacerbate market concerns about the Eurozone's economic recovery.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
