Safe-haven demand recovery is unlikely to overcome policy pressures; gold prices may enter a period of consolidation after the rebound.
2026-02-03 09:54:35
After experiencing an unusually sharp market correction in the previous trading day, international gold prices saw a technical rebound during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, partially recovering the previous losses.
However, overall market sentiment remains cautious, with bullish funds entering the market at a slow pace, reflecting lingering concerns among investors about the short-term environment. From a macroeconomic perspective, expectations regarding monetary policy are a significant factor constraining gold prices.
The US president's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman has significantly shifted market expectations toward a more cautious, even hawkish, stance on future policy. Investors generally expect the new chairman to be more inclined to maintain higher interest rates and further shrink the Fed's balance sheet.
This policy stance typically benefits the US dollar but diminishes the appeal of gold, which lacks interest-bearing attributes. Meanwhile, changes in market liquidity exacerbate short-term selling pressure.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver, forcing some highly leveraged traders to liquidate their positions to meet funding needs. This type of technical deleveraging amplified price volatility in the short term and hampered any rebound in gold prices.
Geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide potential support for gold prices. The US and Iran may engage in diplomatic talks later this week, but the situation remains subject to recurring fluctuations.
The market is closely watching the progress of the negotiations, and any renewed escalation of tensions could trigger a return of safe-haven funds to the gold market. Overall, gold prices are currently in a sensitive phase where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, with fundamentals and policy expectations having a significantly stronger impact on price movements than safe-haven sentiment alone.
From the daily chart, gold experienced a sharp pullback after its previous rapid rise, with significantly increased volatility, indicating a concentrated release of profits at higher levels. Although the current price has rebounded from its lows, it is still trading below previous highs, suggesting that the market has not yet fully digested the previous upward trend.
The daily chart shows that gold prices have entered a corrective rebound phase after a sharp drop, with shorter candlestick bodies and longer shadows reflecting increased divergence between bulls and bears. Prices have temporarily stabilized around $4800, a key area for short-term bullish defense, and its stability will directly impact the subsequent price movement.
From a trend perspective, short-term moving averages are showing signs of turning downwards, but have not yet formed a clear downward alignment, indicating that the current market is more inclined towards high-level consolidation rather than a one-sided bearish trend. If the price can continue to consolidate above $4800, it will help alleviate short-term selling pressure and accumulate conditions for a subsequent directional choice.
On the upside, the $4850–$4900 range presents significant technical resistance. This area not only marks the starting point of the previous accelerated decline but also corresponds to a key resistance zone on the daily chart. Until a decisive breakout of this range is achieved, any rebound in gold prices is more likely to be seen as a technical correction within a consolidation phase.
On the downside, if the $4,800 level is breached, prices may retest the previous lows, increasing short-term volatility. Overall, the daily chart for gold shows a wide-range, high-level consolidation with an unclear direction, and short-term price action still requires new fundamental catalysts.
Editor's Note:
The core contradiction in the current gold market lies in the interplay between safe-haven demand and expectations regarding monetary policy. While geopolitical uncertainty provides a floor for gold prices, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar are limiting the upside potential for gold.
From a strategic perspective, it's unwise to have overly high expectations for a one-sided market trend in the short term. A more reasonable assessment is that gold prices will likely maintain a high-level consolidation pattern. Only when policy expectations shift significantly or geopolitical risks escalate substantially will gold be able to regain upward momentum.
However, overall market sentiment remains cautious, with bullish funds entering the market at a slow pace, reflecting lingering concerns among investors about the short-term environment. From a macroeconomic perspective, expectations regarding monetary policy are a significant factor constraining gold prices.
The US president's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman has significantly shifted market expectations toward a more cautious, even hawkish, stance on future policy. Investors generally expect the new chairman to be more inclined to maintain higher interest rates and further shrink the Fed's balance sheet.
This policy stance typically benefits the US dollar but diminishes the appeal of gold, which lacks interest-bearing attributes. Meanwhile, changes in market liquidity exacerbate short-term selling pressure.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver, forcing some highly leveraged traders to liquidate their positions to meet funding needs. This type of technical deleveraging amplified price volatility in the short term and hampered any rebound in gold prices.
Geopolitical uncertainty continues to provide potential support for gold prices. The US and Iran may engage in diplomatic talks later this week, but the situation remains subject to recurring fluctuations.
The market is closely watching the progress of the negotiations, and any renewed escalation of tensions could trigger a return of safe-haven funds to the gold market. Overall, gold prices are currently in a sensitive phase where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, with fundamentals and policy expectations having a significantly stronger impact on price movements than safe-haven sentiment alone.
From the daily chart, gold experienced a sharp pullback after its previous rapid rise, with significantly increased volatility, indicating a concentrated release of profits at higher levels. Although the current price has rebounded from its lows, it is still trading below previous highs, suggesting that the market has not yet fully digested the previous upward trend.
The daily chart shows that gold prices have entered a corrective rebound phase after a sharp drop, with shorter candlestick bodies and longer shadows reflecting increased divergence between bulls and bears. Prices have temporarily stabilized around $4800, a key area for short-term bullish defense, and its stability will directly impact the subsequent price movement.
From a trend perspective, short-term moving averages are showing signs of turning downwards, but have not yet formed a clear downward alignment, indicating that the current market is more inclined towards high-level consolidation rather than a one-sided bearish trend. If the price can continue to consolidate above $4800, it will help alleviate short-term selling pressure and accumulate conditions for a subsequent directional choice.
On the upside, the $4850–$4900 range presents significant technical resistance. This area not only marks the starting point of the previous accelerated decline but also corresponds to a key resistance zone on the daily chart. Until a decisive breakout of this range is achieved, any rebound in gold prices is more likely to be seen as a technical correction within a consolidation phase.
On the downside, if the $4,800 level is breached, prices may retest the previous lows, increasing short-term volatility. Overall, the daily chart for gold shows a wide-range, high-level consolidation with an unclear direction, and short-term price action still requires new fundamental catalysts.
Editor's Note:
The core contradiction in the current gold market lies in the interplay between safe-haven demand and expectations regarding monetary policy. While geopolitical uncertainty provides a floor for gold prices, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar are limiting the upside potential for gold.
From a strategic perspective, it's unwise to have overly high expectations for a one-sided market trend in the short term. A more reasonable assessment is that gold prices will likely maintain a high-level consolidation pattern. Only when policy expectations shift significantly or geopolitical risks escalate substantially will gold be able to regain upward momentum.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
