Super Week is Coming: A Global Market Outlook Amidst the Japanese Election and a Dense Release of Data
2026-02-06 20:03:18
Next week (February 8-13), global markets will face a crucial window of opportunity with the Japanese general election and a flurry of key economic data releases. The US non-farm payroll data release will be delayed, and core economic indicators from both China and the US will be released in quick succession. SMIC's fourth-quarter results will also be officially unveiled. From the political maneuvering surrounding the Japanese election to the Federal Reserve's policy-anchored non-farm payroll and CPI data, from China's social financing and credit data and inflation figures to economic indicators from Europe and the US, a complex interplay of events and data could trigger significant market volatility. Investors need to plan ahead to mitigate potential risks and opportunities.
Japan will hold a snap election on Sunday (February 8). The key point of interest is whether the Liberal Democratic Party can win 310 seats in the House of Representatives (2/3), because initiating the constitutional amendment process requires the approval of more than 2/3 of the members of both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors.
Furthermore, if the House of Representatives reaches 310 seats, the "House of Representatives supremacy" can be invoked, meaning that even if the Senate rejects a bill, the House can still force its passage with a two-thirds majority, which is of great significance for policy advancement.
On Monday (February 9), Japan will release its adjusted trade balance for December, Europe will release its consumer confidence index for February, and the more important final reading of the US December wholesale inventory month-on-month rate is a way to observe the US inventory cycle . SMIC will release its fourth-quarter results on Tuesday evening.
On Tuesday (February 10), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its 1-year and 3-year inflation forecasts, as well as its gold price predictions. China also released its figures for new RMB loans and total social financing, two key indicators of the Chinese economy's performance.
The growth rate of China's M2 will be released later. The difference between the growth rates of M1 and M2 is a classic indicator of market activity . A positive difference indicates that investment is recovering and people are willing to convert fixed deposits into current accounts.
Tonight, the US will release its monthly retail sales figures, commonly known as the "terrifying numbers," along with the import price index, which is a leading indicator and external driver of inflation.
Wednesday (February 11) is the focus of this week. The US Department of Labor's non-farm payroll data, originally scheduled for February 6, will be released today after being postponed. Since the previously released ADP non-farm payroll data was weaker than expected, the number of new jobs added in this non-farm payroll data may also be lower than expected. However, since the overall non-farm payroll number is at a low level, its impact will be limited. Instead, the unemployment rate will still have a greater impact on the market. 4.4% is the red line for the US unemployment rate. If it is exceeded, the downward pressure on the US dollar index will be quite significant.
Two FOMC voting members will deliver speeches that evening. In addition to the non-farm payrolls data, the day will also see China's CPI and PPI data, as well as crude oil inventory figures released by API and EIA. Meanwhile, SMIC plans to hold its Q4 2025 earnings conference.
On Thursday (February 12), the United States announced the results of the 10-year Treasury yield auction. The results were worse than expected, which is expected to push up Treasury yields. This auction was particularly noteworthy as it was placed between the non-farm payroll and CPI data.
The auction of US 10-year Treasury bonds is sandwiched between two key data releases: non-farm payrolls and CPI. The auction results will amplify market volatility in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The UK will release its December GDP, the US will release initial and continuing jobless claims, and later that month, existing home sales data for January.
On Friday evening (February 13), the US will release January's CPI year-on-year data, which, combined with the non-farm payroll data, will outline the Fed's next move.
On the same day, the Eurozone released its Q4 GDP data. With the Spring Festival starting on February 15, the pre-holiday effect in the capital markets may be quite pronounced this week, and Friday may be a good time to buy on dips.
In addition to core economic data, investors should be wary of three potential risks: First, the political uncertainties arising from the Japanese general election results, such as changes in the Liberal Democratic Party's seats exceeding market expectations, could directly trigger sharp short-term fluctuations in the yen and Japanese assets. Second, after the release of the Fed's non-farm payroll and CPI data, significant revisions to policy expectations could lead to a coordinated adjustment in the dollar index, US Treasury yields, and global risk assets. Third, pre-Chinese New Year liquidity fluctuations coupled with the release of earnings reports from Chinese companies could trigger sentiment-driven volatility in related sectors of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, requiring vigilance against the risk of short-term market liquidity tightening.
Japan's general election begins, with constitutional revision and policy maneuvering at the core.
Japan will hold a snap election on Sunday (February 8). The key point of interest is whether the Liberal Democratic Party can win 310 seats in the House of Representatives (2/3), because initiating the constitutional amendment process requires the approval of more than 2/3 of the members of both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors.
Furthermore, if the House of Representatives reaches 310 seats, the "House of Representatives supremacy" can be invoked, meaning that even if the Senate rejects a bill, the House can still force its passage with a two-thirds majority, which is of great significance for policy advancement.
Data from Asia, Europe, and the Americas are released simultaneously; SMIC's performance is poised for disclosure.
On Monday (February 9), Japan will release its adjusted trade balance for December, Europe will release its consumer confidence index for February, and the more important final reading of the US December wholesale inventory month-on-month rate is a way to observe the US inventory cycle . SMIC will release its fourth-quarter results on Tuesday evening.
Inflation expectations lead the way; core data from China and the US set the tone for economic fundamentals.
On Tuesday (February 10), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its 1-year and 3-year inflation forecasts, as well as its gold price predictions. China also released its figures for new RMB loans and total social financing, two key indicators of the Chinese economy's performance.
The growth rate of China's M2 will be released later. The difference between the growth rates of M1 and M2 is a classic indicator of market activity . A positive difference indicates that investment is recovering and people are willing to convert fixed deposits into current accounts.
Tonight, the US will release its monthly retail sales figures, commonly known as the "terrifying numbers," along with the import price index, which is a leading indicator and external driver of inflation.
Non-farm payrolls data is the final release, marking a surge in global data releases.
Wednesday (February 11) is the focus of this week. The US Department of Labor's non-farm payroll data, originally scheduled for February 6, will be released today after being postponed. Since the previously released ADP non-farm payroll data was weaker than expected, the number of new jobs added in this non-farm payroll data may also be lower than expected. However, since the overall non-farm payroll number is at a low level, its impact will be limited. Instead, the unemployment rate will still have a greater impact on the market. 4.4% is the red line for the US unemployment rate. If it is exceeded, the downward pressure on the US dollar index will be quite significant.
Two FOMC voting members will deliver speeches that evening. In addition to the non-farm payrolls data, the day will also see China's CPI and PPI data, as well as crude oil inventory figures released by API and EIA. Meanwhile, SMIC plans to hold its Q4 2025 earnings conference.
US Treasury auction draws attention; European and American economic data provide a more comprehensive picture of the fundamentals.
On Thursday (February 12), the United States announced the results of the 10-year Treasury yield auction. The results were worse than expected, which is expected to push up Treasury yields. This auction was particularly noteworthy as it was placed between the non-farm payroll and CPI data.
The auction of US 10-year Treasury bonds is sandwiched between two key data releases: non-farm payrolls and CPI. The auction results will amplify market volatility in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The UK will release its December GDP, the US will release initial and continuing jobless claims, and later that month, existing home sales data for January.
US and European inflation and GDP figures close out; pre-holiday effects highlight market investment opportunities.
On Friday evening (February 13), the US will release January's CPI year-on-year data, which, combined with the non-farm payroll data, will outline the Fed's next move.
On the same day, the Eurozone released its Q4 GDP data. With the Spring Festival starting on February 15, the pre-holiday effect in the capital markets may be quite pronounced this week, and Friday may be a good time to buy on dips.
Risk warning: The uncertainties of the election and policy expectations require close attention.
In addition to core economic data, investors should be wary of three potential risks: First, the political uncertainties arising from the Japanese general election results, such as changes in the Liberal Democratic Party's seats exceeding market expectations, could directly trigger sharp short-term fluctuations in the yen and Japanese assets. Second, after the release of the Fed's non-farm payroll and CPI data, significant revisions to policy expectations could lead to a coordinated adjustment in the dollar index, US Treasury yields, and global risk assets. Third, pre-Chinese New Year liquidity fluctuations coupled with the release of earnings reports from Chinese companies could trigger sentiment-driven volatility in related sectors of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, requiring vigilance against the risk of short-term market liquidity tightening.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
