On Friday (February 6), during the US trading session, the spot gold and silver markets rebounded strongly. Gold prices surged, while spot silver rose by more than 7%-8% at one point during the day, recovering significantly from overnight lows and shaking off the shadow of previous sharp declines. The rise was mainly driven by bargain hunting, a slight weakening of the US dollar, and market expectations of easing geopolitical risks brought about by the nuclear talks between the US and Iran in Oman. Gold is poised for a weekly gain, while silver has rebounded strongly from a one-and-a-half-month low.



In the futures market, silver contracts showed a clear divergence. The most active March contract fluctuated slightly lower, dragged down by leveraged long position liquidation and liquidity pressures triggered by the CME Group's third margin requirement increase this week (the third in two weeks). Futures prices were under pressure and fell at times, despite a significant recovery in spot demand. April gold futures rose approximately $90 to around $4,980; March silver futures fell slightly by about $0.50 to around $76.35 (spot silver simultaneously surged to the $76-$77 range).

The continued rise in the US dollar index over the past few weeks had dampened bullish sentiment in precious metals, but signs of easing geopolitical risks coupled with a technical rebound after previous overselling pushed spot silver significantly higher today. The strong overnight rebound in US stocks diverted some safe-haven buying, but improved expectations for industrial demand for silver and the return of speculative funds were the main drivers of today's rebound.

Market analysts suggest that gold presents a buying opportunity for bullish traders. Iran and the United States began high-stakes talks on Friday, brokered by Oman, in an attempt to overcome their significant differences over Tehran's nuclear program. Analysts believe that the gold rally lacks sustained momentum, and without a major negative geopolitical trigger, gold is unlikely to break its recent record highs. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold performs well during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Spot silver rose approximately 5.3%-8% to a range of around $75-76 per ounce, after briefly falling below $65, but it could still record its biggest weekly drop since 2011 (over 10%), following a sharp decline the previous week. Market sentiment suggests significant speculative buying in silver, and after years of boom, the precious metal now appears to be entering a typical commodity correction phase.

To curb the risk of increased volatility, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures on Thursday (the third time in two weeks), further exacerbating selling pressure in the futures market.

Iran and the United States began talks today, initiating indirect negotiations aimed at easing tensions that have teetered on the brink of war. Iran stated that these talks will be the first phase of a long-term diplomatic process. The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported Friday morning that the talks, held in Muscat, the capital of Oman, focused on macro-level issues rather than details, potentially clarifying the roadmap for future negotiations. The Iranian delegation was led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. IRNA noted that Iran's core demands included "assessing the sincerity and resolve of the US side in negotiations," and stated that "the roadmap may become clearer after this round of talks."

Trump had previously threatened military action against Iran if a deal wasn't reached; Iran warned that any military attack would trigger a regional war involving both Israel and the United States. The US government today urged its citizens in Iran to evacuate, and those unable to evacuate to stockpile sufficient food and drinking water. The exact number of US citizens still in Iran is currently unknown, but is expected to be small. The Iranian Foreign Minister called the negotiations a "good start," and both sides agreed to continue further discussions.


(COMEX Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678)

From a technical perspective, the April gold futures daily chart formed a bearish "key reversal" pattern last week, potentially indicating a short-term top. However, today's strong rebound has broken through previous highs, and bulls have regained the upper hand. The next target for the bulls is to hold above and close above the key resistance level of $5250.00; the downside target for the bears is to break below the key support level of $4423.20, the low of this week. The first resistance level for gold futures is $5000.00 (already approaching or broken), and the second resistance level is Thursday's high of $5045.00; the first support level is $4800.00, and the second support level is the overnight low of $4670.00.

The March silver futures daily chart shows a bearish pennant pattern, but today's surge in spot prices led to a brief rebound in futures before a pullback, indicating that futures are more influenced by margin increases and leverage factors. The next target for silver bulls is a close above the key resistance level of $92.015, this week's high; the downside target for bears is a close below the key support level of $60.00. The first resistance level for silver futures is $77.50 (close to current spot levels), and the second resistance level is $80.00; the first support level is $70.00, and the second support level is $65.00.

Note: The gold market primarily operates through two mechanisms: spot (immediate delivery) and futures (future delivery). The silver market is similar; spot prices rebounded strongly today, while futures prices faced slight pressure due to leveraged traders being forced to liquidate their positions after multiple margin calls by the CME. Affected by volatility and liquidity, the most actively traded silver futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is currently the March contract.