Institutional analysis of US January non-farm payrolls: Employment far exceeded expectations
2026-02-11 21:50:17
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday (February 11) showed that seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 130,000 in January, significantly higher than the market median expectation of 70,000, marking the largest increase since April 2025.
The number of new non-farm jobs added in November was revised from 56,000 to 41,000; the number of new non-farm jobs added in December was revised from 50,000 to 48,000. After the revisions, the total number of new jobs added in November and December was 17,000 lower than before the revisions.
The seasonally adjusted total number of nonfarm jobs in March 2025 was revised down by 898,000.
The U.S. unemployment rate in January was 4.3%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.4%, marking a new low since August 2025.
U.S. Treasury yields surged after a stronger-than-expected jobs report was released; the 10-year Treasury yield last rose 4.7 basis points to 4.192%. Traders have fully priced in a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, previously expected in June.
Foreign media analysis reports that US non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding market expectations. However, it's important to note that some of this increase may be due to downward revisions to the previous year's data. The combined downward revisions for November and December non-farm payrolls amounted to 17,000. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% in January. The unadjusted annual employment baseline was revised down by 862,000, also appearing better than market expectations. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% month-on-month, also exceeding expectations. Manufacturing jobs appear to have finally reversed their decline, with 5,000 new jobs added in January. The labor force participation rate was another positive factor, rising from 62.4% to 62.5%. From any perspective, the overall changes in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate far exceeded expectations. The market's immediate reaction was a stronger dollar and weaker yields on US Treasury bonds across all maturities.
Institutional Views
The Financial Times' commentary on the non-farm payroll report noted that the US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, far exceeding market expectations, indicating signs of improvement in the US labor market after a series of weak data. US Treasury yields jumped in response as investors lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts this year. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, particularly sensitive to monetary policy, surged to 3.55%, a one-week high. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.3%. After years of strong growth, US hiring activity is expected to slow sharply by 2025. A series of new reports released last week suggested that the labor market could deteriorate further as layoffs increase and job openings decrease. However, the latest data will help reinforce Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's argument that the labor market is showing "signs of stabilization."
The Wall Street Journal's analysis of the non-farm payroll report noted that the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, far exceeding market expectations and providing a strong start to a year of weak job growth. The unemployment rate, based on another independent survey, fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. The Federal Reserve, after three consecutive rate cuts at its last meeting at the end of January, kept interest rates unchanged. Chairman Powell attributed this to stronger economic growth and initial signs of stabilization in the labor market. For months, a notable feature of the U.S. job market has been that companies have postponed new hiring but not engaged in large-scale layoffs. This situation has made it harder for recent graduates to find employment and has left many unemployed individuals in a long and often fruitless job search. Rising costs and uncertainty surrounding President Trump's evolving tariff policies have made companies hesitant to hire more employees. Some companies have also postponed expansion as they explore the potential of artificial intelligence for more tasks.
The number of new non-farm jobs added in November was revised from 56,000 to 41,000; the number of new non-farm jobs added in December was revised from 50,000 to 48,000. After the revisions, the total number of new jobs added in November and December was 17,000 lower than before the revisions.
The seasonally adjusted total number of nonfarm jobs in March 2025 was revised down by 898,000.
The U.S. unemployment rate in January was 4.3%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.4%, marking a new low since August 2025.
U.S. Treasury yields surged after a stronger-than-expected jobs report was released; the 10-year Treasury yield last rose 4.7 basis points to 4.192%. Traders have fully priced in a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, previously expected in June.
Foreign media analysis reports that US non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding market expectations. However, it's important to note that some of this increase may be due to downward revisions to the previous year's data. The combined downward revisions for November and December non-farm payrolls amounted to 17,000. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% in January. The unadjusted annual employment baseline was revised down by 862,000, also appearing better than market expectations. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% month-on-month, also exceeding expectations. Manufacturing jobs appear to have finally reversed their decline, with 5,000 new jobs added in January. The labor force participation rate was another positive factor, rising from 62.4% to 62.5%. From any perspective, the overall changes in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate far exceeded expectations. The market's immediate reaction was a stronger dollar and weaker yields on US Treasury bonds across all maturities.
Institutional Views
The Financial Times' commentary on the non-farm payroll report noted that the US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, far exceeding market expectations, indicating signs of improvement in the US labor market after a series of weak data. US Treasury yields jumped in response as investors lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts this year. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, particularly sensitive to monetary policy, surged to 3.55%, a one-week high. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.3%. After years of strong growth, US hiring activity is expected to slow sharply by 2025. A series of new reports released last week suggested that the labor market could deteriorate further as layoffs increase and job openings decrease. However, the latest data will help reinforce Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's argument that the labor market is showing "signs of stabilization."
The Wall Street Journal's analysis of the non-farm payroll report noted that the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, far exceeding market expectations and providing a strong start to a year of weak job growth. The unemployment rate, based on another independent survey, fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. The Federal Reserve, after three consecutive rate cuts at its last meeting at the end of January, kept interest rates unchanged. Chairman Powell attributed this to stronger economic growth and initial signs of stabilization in the labor market. For months, a notable feature of the U.S. job market has been that companies have postponed new hiring but not engaged in large-scale layoffs. This situation has made it harder for recent graduates to find employment and has left many unemployed individuals in a long and often fruitless job search. Rising costs and uncertainty surrounding President Trump's evolving tariff policies have made companies hesitant to hire more employees. Some companies have also postponed expansion as they explore the potential of artificial intelligence for more tasks.
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