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2026-02-13 17:35:22
[91 Million Tons! Russian Wheat Production Forecast Raised Again, Global Supply Pressure Increases Sharply] ⑴ Russian consulting firm IKAR on Friday raised its forecast for the country's 2026 wheat harvest from 88 million tons to 91 million tons. Head of the firm, Dmitry Rylko, also projected an export potential of 47.5 million tons for the 2026/27 season. ⑵ The firm also projected Russia's total grain production for 2026/27 to be 141.5 million tons, with an export potential of 63.5 million tons. ⑶ The upward revisions to both production and export forecasts mean that wheat supplies in the Black Sea region will be more abundant than previously anticipated, further increasing the grain supply available to global buyers in the new season. ⑷ From a supply and demand perspective, upward revisions to production figures from major producing countries often put downward pressure on international wheat prices. In particular, Russian wheat, with its price advantage, occupies a significant share of the global export market, and its expanded export potential will intensify the bargaining power of major importing countries. (5) In the future, attention should be paid to the growth of winter wheat in other major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere. If there are also signs of a bumper harvest, the loose supply situation in the international grain market will be further established.
