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2026-02-13 17:41:35
[Oil Price Collapse and Geopolitical Clouds: Can the Rubber Market Recline After Three Consecutive Days of Decline?] ⑴ The Kuala Lumpur rubber market closed lower on Friday, with the SMR 20 contract falling 7.5 sen to 757 sen/kg and bulk latex declining 1 sen to 578.5 sen/kg. Traders cited a continued 0.28% drop in Brent crude oil to $67.33/barrel, coupled with weakness in regional rubber futures. ⑵ Oil prices had already plummeted by nearly 3%, with expectations of oversupply and rising inventories continuing to weigh on sentiment. Meanwhile, Japanese rubber futures fell for three consecutive days, and the approaching Lunar New Year holiday in China exacerbated selling pressure due to liquidity shortages. ⑶ Escalating tensions in the Middle East added another layer of pressure. Media reports indicated that the US was deploying a second aircraft carrier to the region, creating a double whammy of geopolitical risk premiums and pessimistic demand. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data showed that global electric vehicle registrations in January plummeted by 3% year-on-year, dragged down by the reduction of subsidies in China and changes in US policy, directly impacting the outlook for rubber consumption. (4) However, the decline was limited by positive US economic data and stable inflation expectations, and the market is still weighing the supporting effect of macroeconomic resilience on industrial commodities. (5) Next Monday is the Chinese New Year holiday. The Kuala Lumpur market will be closed from February 16th to 18th and will resume trading on the 19th. Pre-holiday capital outflows may reduce volatility, but the unresolved supply-demand imbalance in the oil market and geopolitical tensions will make the post-holiday restocking pace and the direction of electric vehicle policies key variables for the renewed battle between bulls and bears.
