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2026-02-13 19:12:34
[Flattening US Treasury Curve Pressures Risk Assets, Dollar Rises Slightly] ⑴ US Treasury prices fell slightly on Friday, further flattening the yield curve. As of 18:58 Beijing time, the March contract for 10-year Treasury futures was trading at 112-22, with intraday fluctuations ranging from 112-21 to 112-28. The spread between 10-year US Treasury yields and German government bond yields remained unchanged at 134.5 basis points. ⑵ Risk assets generally weakened, with the S&P 500 falling 0.2% and the Euro Stoxx 50 falling 0.1%. In Asian markets, the Nikkei 225 closed down 1.2%, and the CSI 300 fell 1.3%. ⑶ The yen weakened against the dollar to 153.37, the euro to 1.1856, and the pound to 1.3614. The dollar index rose slightly to 97.03. Gold rose slightly to $4942.86, and crude oil to $67.77. (4) From the perspective of capital flows, trading in US Treasuries was active, but the yield curve flattened, reflecting a more stable market expectation for short-term interest rates and continued caution regarding long-term growth prospects. Risk assets were under pressure simultaneously, indicating a rise in risk aversion. (5) Going forward, attention should be paid to further guidance from US inflation data on the yield curve shape. If core PCE exceeds expectations, long-term yields may face upward pressure, and the flattening trend of the yield curve may temporarily pause.
