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2026-02-13 19:14:10
[Morgan Stanley: Strong Non-Farm Payrolls + Weak Inflation = Dollar Decline, Goldilocks Combination Imminent] ⑴ Morgan Stanley strategists noted in a report that historically, strong non-farm payroll reports followed by lower-than-expected inflation data have driven the largest declines in the US dollar. ⑵ They explained that this combination suggests that strong US growth signals without accompanying inflationary pressures constitute a "Goldilocks" combination for risk-averse demand, supporting a stronger dollar for risk-sensitive currencies. ⑶ The inflation swap market suggests that the January inflation report, to be released at 21:30 Beijing time, may be lower than expected. Wednesday's non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected. ⑷ From a trading perspective, if tonight's CPI is indeed lower than expected, the market will bet that the Fed still has room to cut rates against a backdrop of strong growth but moderate inflation, thus weakening the dollar's appeal and boosting risk currencies. ⑸ The focus now is entirely on the upcoming CPI data; any deviation from expectations will directly trigger a repricing of the dollar and risk assets.
