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2026-02-13 20:02:19
[OPEC+ Inclines Towards Resuming Production Increases from April, Oil Prices Plunge $1] ⑴ Three OPEC+ sources stated that the alliance favors resuming increased oil production from April, currently preparing for the summer demand peak, and that US-Iran tensions are supporting stronger oil prices. ⑵ Resuming production increases would allow OPEC+ leader Saudi Arabia and member UAE to regain market share—currently, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and other countries are constrained by Western sanctions, while Kazakhstan's production is limited by a series of setbacks. ⑶ The eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—will hold a meeting on March 1st. Two sources stated that no decisions have been made yet, and negotiations will continue in the weeks leading up to the meeting. ⑷ Following the announcement, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by nearly $1 in the short term, with both experiencing intraday drops exceeding 1%. The market quickly priced in the expected increase in supply. (5) From a supply and demand perspective, if OPEC+ starts increasing production in April, it will break the current tight balance, and the central oil price will face downward pressure. However, the actual impact depends on the pace and scale of the production increase, as well as whether supplies from sanctioned countries such as Iran and Venezuela can truly return to the market. (6) The market should pay attention to the final positions of member countries before the March 1 meeting, as well as the progress of US-Iran negotiations—if geopolitical risks cool down simultaneously, the downward pressure on oil prices will further increase.
