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2026-02-13 21:54:43
[US Treasury Yields Decline, CPI Slows to 2.4%, Strengthening Expectations of Rate Cuts] ⑴ January CPI data, delayed due to the government shutdown, showed that 12-month inflation slowed to 2.4% from 2.7% in December, lower than the 2.5% expected by economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. Core CPI fell to 2.5% from 2.6%, in line with expectations. ⑵ Slowing inflation supports a Fed rate cut, but recent labor market indicators point to a strong economy, requiring monetary policy to remain cautious. February CPI is scheduled to be released before the Fed's next meeting. ⑶ Following the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.102% to 4.085%, and the 2-year yield fell from 3.478% to 3.431%. ⑷ From a market perspective, the lower-than-expected overall CPI provided short-term buying support for US Treasuries, and the confirmed slowing inflation trend strengthened market pricing in a rate cut this year, but the resilience of the employment situation still leaves uncertainty regarding the timing of the rate cut. (5) The market needs to pay attention to whether the February CPI data can continue its downward trend, as well as the statements of Federal Reserve officials on the latest inflation data, which will determine whether yields can stabilize at the current low level or decline further.
