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2026-02-13 22:03:58
[Sparta Capital: No Accelerated Inflation is a Good Number; Rate Cut May Be in June, But It Depends on Labor Market] ⑴ Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Sparta Capital Securities, stated that the January CPI was ultimately a good number. This indicates that we are still some distance from the Fed's 2% target, but inflation has not accelerated. ⑵ He pointed out that we may be starting to see a glimmer of hope regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs. This impact still exists, but it is weakening. ⑶ Cardillo expects a rate cut around June, but this largely depends on the labor market. However, if inflation data continues to move in the right direction, he believes that a rate cut is likely once the new Fed Chair takes office. ⑷ From a policy perspective, Cardillo's comments are consistent with mainstream market expectations: inflation is slowing but not yet reaching the target, and the marginal impact of tariffs is weakening, providing the Fed with room to wait and see. The timing of the rate cut depends on the combination of inflation and employment data in the coming months. ⑸ The market will need to pay attention to whether subsequent CPI reports will continue their downward trend, and the policy stance of the new chair after Powell's term ends in May. These will be key variables in determining the timing of the first rate cut.
