Crude oil trading alert: OPEC+ production increase expectations rise, oil prices remain in a narrow range.
2026-02-16 08:44:18
Trading in the international crude oil market was generally quiet during Monday's Asian trading session, with prices remaining range-bound. Near-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $62.88 per barrel, essentially unchanged; Brent crude oil was at $67.74 per barrel, with limited fluctuations.
Market risk appetite was moderate, but investors remained cautious ahead of key meetings, leaving oil prices lacking trend momentum. Supply-side expectations are currently the main theme in the market.
Some OPEC+ members believe that the global market supply and demand structure has improved and inventory pressure is manageable, thus creating conditions for a gradual resumption of some production in April. This news reinforced market expectations of future supply increases, putting upward pressure on oil prices.
ANZ research indicates that OPEC+ will hold a meeting on March 1 to discuss the implementation of the production cut agreement and future production arrangements.
If the meeting confirms a gradual increase in production, oil prices may face downward pressure in the short term; if the current pace of production cuts is maintained, it may provide some support to the market. Uncertainty remains on the demand side.
Signs of a global economic slowdown have not completely subsided, with limited growth momentum in industrial activity and energy consumption. However, if major economies adopt more accommodative monetary policies, this could provide support for energy demand in the medium term.
Overall, the oil market is currently in a phase of negotiation regarding the expectation of a "supply and demand rebalancing".
From a daily chart perspective, US crude oil is currently trading within a range above $60, exhibiting a consolidation pattern. After rebounding from its previous lows, prices have fluctuated around $62, indicating a clear divergence between bulls and bears at this level.
The short-term moving average system is flattening, indicating a significant slowdown in upward momentum. Prices are currently fluctuating around the 20-day moving average, suggesting that the market has not yet established a new trend.
If the price continues to hold above $62 and breaks through the resistance level of $64.50, it may open up upward potential and further test the $65 area and above.
On the downside, the $62 level forms a key technical support line. A decisive break below this level could trigger stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline towards the $60 area.
In terms of momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 50, not entering the extreme zone, indicating that the market is in a neutral consolidation state, and the direction will still need to be driven by fundamental news.
Overall, the technical outlook for US crude oil shows a typical "range-bound, awaiting breakout" structure. Before the OPEC+ meeting results are released, prices are likely to remain within the $60-$65 range; once supply policies become clear, a breakout may occur.
Editor's Review:
The current oil market lacks a clear trend driver, with supply-side expectations becoming the core variable. Technical patterns for US crude oil indicate the market is entering a consolidation phase, with $62 as a key dividing line. A range-bound trading strategy is recommended in the short term, while the medium-term direction depends on the OPEC+ meeting's stance on supply levels.
Market risk appetite was moderate, but investors remained cautious ahead of key meetings, leaving oil prices lacking trend momentum. Supply-side expectations are currently the main theme in the market.
Some OPEC+ members believe that the global market supply and demand structure has improved and inventory pressure is manageable, thus creating conditions for a gradual resumption of some production in April. This news reinforced market expectations of future supply increases, putting upward pressure on oil prices.
ANZ research indicates that OPEC+ will hold a meeting on March 1 to discuss the implementation of the production cut agreement and future production arrangements.
If the meeting confirms a gradual increase in production, oil prices may face downward pressure in the short term; if the current pace of production cuts is maintained, it may provide some support to the market. Uncertainty remains on the demand side.
Signs of a global economic slowdown have not completely subsided, with limited growth momentum in industrial activity and energy consumption. However, if major economies adopt more accommodative monetary policies, this could provide support for energy demand in the medium term.
Overall, the oil market is currently in a phase of negotiation regarding the expectation of a "supply and demand rebalancing".
From a daily chart perspective, US crude oil is currently trading within a range above $60, exhibiting a consolidation pattern. After rebounding from its previous lows, prices have fluctuated around $62, indicating a clear divergence between bulls and bears at this level.
The short-term moving average system is flattening, indicating a significant slowdown in upward momentum. Prices are currently fluctuating around the 20-day moving average, suggesting that the market has not yet established a new trend.
If the price continues to hold above $62 and breaks through the resistance level of $64.50, it may open up upward potential and further test the $65 area and above.
On the downside, the $62 level forms a key technical support line. A decisive break below this level could trigger stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline towards the $60 area.
In terms of momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 50, not entering the extreme zone, indicating that the market is in a neutral consolidation state, and the direction will still need to be driven by fundamental news.
Overall, the technical outlook for US crude oil shows a typical "range-bound, awaiting breakout" structure. Before the OPEC+ meeting results are released, prices are likely to remain within the $60-$65 range; once supply policies become clear, a breakout may occur.
Editor's Review:
The current oil market lacks a clear trend driver, with supply-side expectations becoming the core variable. Technical patterns for US crude oil indicate the market is entering a consolidation phase, with $62 as a key dividing line. A range-bound trading strategy is recommended in the short term, while the medium-term direction depends on the OPEC+ meeting's stance on supply levels.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
