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2026-02-16 15:39:36
[India's Wholesale Inflation Surges to 1.81% in January, a 10-Month High, Led by Food and Metal Prices] ⑴ Data released by the Indian government on Monday showed that wholesale prices rose 1.81% year-on-year in January, the fastest pace in 10 months, mainly driven by a rebound in vegetable and base metal prices. The expected increase was 1.25%, compared to 0.83% previously. The last time wholesale inflation was higher was at 2.25% in March 2025. ⑵ Data showed that rising manufacturing costs for base metals, food, and textile prices all contributed to the increase in wholesale prices in January. Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Baruda Bank, said that the global surge in metal prices, driven by the economic and political environment, has increased the cost of manufactured goods. ⑶ However, Sabnavis added that the higher reading will not have an impact on monetary policy. (4) Key data: Wholesale food prices rose 1.41% year-on-year, compared to no change in the previous month; vegetable prices rose 6.78% year-on-year, compared to a 3.5% decrease in the previous month; manufactured goods prices rose 2.86% year-on-year, compared to 1.82% in December; fuel and electricity prices fell 4.01% year-on-year, compared to a 2.31% decrease in December. (5) In terms of inflation structure, food and manufactured goods drove the rise in wholesale prices, but the decline in fuel prices partially offset the increase. The jump in wholesale inflation has not yet changed market expectations for central bank policy, as core retail inflation remains relatively moderate. (6) Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the rise in food prices will be transmitted to the retail end, and the impact of global commodity price trends on India's imported inflation.
