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2026-02-16 16:15:18
[Production Visibility and Policy Clarity are Key Factors for Malaysia's Plantation Sector This Year] ⑴ TA Securities points out that production visibility, policy implementation, and capital return discipline are key factors for the performance of Malaysia's plantation sector this year. The brokerage believes that following the recovery after El Niño, the market will enter a more uncertain phase in the second half of the year. ⑵ Analyst Angeline Chin adds that the industry enters 2026 against a backdrop of volatile policies, climate risks, changes in trade flows, and lingering geopolitical tensions. She cites Indonesia's postponement of its mandatory blending policy for B50 biodiesel as an example. ⑶ Chin writes in the report that while structural demand for palm oil remains unchanged, prices are primarily driven by supply-side factors in the face of weather-related volatility. ⑷ TA Securities forecasts an average crude palm oil price of 4,000 ringgit per tonne in 2026 and maintains a neutral rating on Malaysia's plantation sector. ⑸ From a market perspective, TA Securities' view points to the plantation sector transitioning from a clear recovery phase to a second half of the year with multiple uncertainties, and price drivers shifting from demand to supply, meaning that market volatility may intensify. ⑹ Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the final implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, weather developments in major producing areas, and the purchasing pace of major importing countries. These factors will determine the actual impact of supply on prices.
