Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-02-17 19:20:46
[US Treasury Yield Curve Flattens, Market Awaits Fed Officials' Speeches and Minutes to Ignite Direction] ⑴ On Tuesday, the US Treasury market resumed trading after the holiday, with the yield curve showing a slight flattening trend. As of press time, the 2-year Treasury yield was 3.399%, the 10-year yield was 4.029%, the 2s/10s spread remained around 63.9 basis points, and the 5s/30s spread was 108.9 basis points. ⑵ On the macro level, the market is hotly debating the divergence between the labor market and economic growth. Some argue that a widening gap is forming between the cooling US labor market and strong GDP growth. Meanwhile, the combination of slowing inflation, stable employment, and solid growth has led some to believe that the economy has achieved a "soft landing," but given the emergence of new risks, it is too early to declare victory. ⑶ Today's economic data includes the February New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index. In terms of events, Federal Reserve Governor Barr and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak on topics such as artificial intelligence and the labor market, and AI and the economy, respectively, with the market hoping to find policy clues from their speeches. (4) Wednesday will see the release of the crucial minutes from the January Fed meeting, and Friday will see the release of the revised Q4 GDP figure and PCE data. In addition, British media are focusing on the asset allocation moves of Japanese investors following Shigeru Ishiba's election victory, as well as warnings from former Fed official Warsh regarding the potential risks of reducing the balance sheet.
