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2026-02-17 19:49:54
[Canada's Weekly Data Preview: CPI and Retail Sales Lead the Way, Central Bank's Rate Cut Path Faces Another Test] ⑴ This week, Canada will see a series of key economic data releases, with Tuesday's January inflation data being the most anticipated. The market expects the January CPI annual rate to remain stable at 2.4%, while the month-on-month increase is expected to be 0.1%, reversing the 0.2% decline of the previous month. ⑵ Regarding the sub-indices of inflation, the Bank of Canada's core CPI indicator is expected to remain moderate. The January CPI-normal annual rate is expected to be 2.8%, the CPI-median annual rate 2.5%, and the CPI-cut-off annual rate 2.7%, all unchanged from the previous month. ⑶ Thursday will see the release of December international trade data. The market expects the trade deficit to narrow to C$2 billion, better than the previous deficit of C$2.197 billion. December international securities trading data, reflecting cross-border capital flows, will also be released on the same day. ⑷ Friday will see the release of crucial December retail sales data. Market expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month decline in total retail sales, a significant slowdown from the previous 1.3% increase, indicating a potential weakening of year-end consumer momentum. The industrial goods and raw materials price index will also be released on the same day. (5) In addition, December data on wholesale trade, new housing price index, and employment insurance will also be released this week. These data will collectively outline the performance of the Canadian economy at the end of the year, providing important reference for the market to judge the Bank of Canada's next policy action.
