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2026-02-17 20:04:50
[The Dawn of a "Soft Landing" for the US Economy Emerges, But No One Dares to Claim Victory] ⑴ The US economy is showing the most consistent positive signs since the pandemic: inflation is falling, the job market is stabilizing, and growth remains solid. Latest data shows that the core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in January, the lowest level since the price surge in 2021, making the scenario of the economy returning to the 2% inflation target without falling into recession increasingly clear. ⑵ However, this battle is far from over. Many companies have begun a new round of price increases, some by high single-digit percentages. Labor costs, health insurance costs, and potential tariff increases are all driving companies to repric, potentially putting upward pressure on future inflation. ⑶ There are also uncertainties at the policy level. Treasury Secretary Bessant called on the Senate to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, although some Republican senators have reservations because Powell is still under investigation. Chicago Fed President Goolsby stated that if inflation falls back to 2%, there is reason to further cut interest rates, but the inflation in the service sector needs to be watched closely. (4) The market is awaiting the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and the PCE data on Friday to confirm the direction of inflation. In this process of "soft landing," no one dares to declare victory prematurely, and any new price pressures could change course.
