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2026-02-17 22:26:13
[US Treasury yields fluctuated only slightly after the US market resumed trading] (1) After the US President's Day holiday, US Treasury yields returned to trading, and the overall trend was not very volatile. (2) In terms of data, the New York Fed's February Empire State Manufacturing Sentiment Index fell slightly to 7.1 from 7.7 in January, lower than the market expectation of 10.0. This week, important economic data will be released one after another: the December US housing starts data will be released tomorrow; the number of initial jobless claims released on Thursday is expected to fall from 227,000 to 220,000; the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be released on Friday, and the market generally expects its year-on-year increase to be the same as in November, remaining at 2.8%. (3) According to the CME Group interest rate futures pricing, the current market expectation is that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at the March meeting has risen to 90%. (4) In terms of specific performance of the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds was 4.037%, lower than the previous trading day's 4.055%; the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds rose slightly from 3.409% to 3.416%.
