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2026-02-18 06:38:47
[The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 92.1%, and expectations for a rate cut continue to shift later] 1. According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch," the market expects a 92.1% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has decreased to 7.9%. Market expectations for a rate cut in March have largely subsided. 2. For subsequent meetings: By April, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 23.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 75.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.5%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 50.0%, indicating that the market still considers mid-year as a possible starting point for rate cuts, but overall expectations have shifted significantly later than at the beginning of the year.
