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2026-02-18 19:07:12
[US Farmers "Bet" on Corn: Best Chance of Breaking Even, Planting Area Expected to Remain High in 2026] ⑴ Despite last year's record corn harvest depressing prices, US farmers expect only a slight reduction in corn planting area in 2026. Facing a fourth consecutive year of meager profits or even losses, farmers believe corn is the most likely option to break even, while soybeans are considered riskier due to increased competition from Brazil and volatile trade relations with China. ⑵ Analyst surveys show that US corn planting area in 2026 is projected at 94.9 million acres, down about 4% from last year's 89-year high, but still the second highest level in 13 years. Soybean planting area is projected at 84.9 million acres, in line with the 10-year average, higher than the six-year low of 81 million acres in 2025. ⑶ Corn's appeal lies in strong demand support. Record export sales progress and robust demand from ethanol producers provide a floor for prices. CBOT December corn futures, representing the 2026 harvest, are hovering around $4.60 per bushel, nearing farmers' break-even point. The soybean market, however, is more like "political football," facing uncertainty due to US-China relations. (4) On the cost side, farmers are doing everything they can to cut expenses: halting new machinery purchases, reducing fertilizer use, postponing equipment maintenance, and focusing most of their investment on corn. Some farmers in North Dakota plan to expand their corn acreage by 15% this spring. Despite the pressure, the USDA will release its annual Outlook Forum this week, providing the market with clearer guidance on planting intentions.
