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[Who Will Succeed Lagarde if She Steps Down Early? Market Focuses on Two Candidates] ⑴ Rumors surrounding the potential early resignation of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sparked widespread speculation on Wednesday regarding her successor. The Financial Times reported that Lagarde plans to leave before the end of her term in October 2027 and hopes that French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Anders Merz will be key decision-makers in her successor's life. The ECB subsequently responded that Lagarde has not yet made any decision. ⑵ Despite the rumors, the market reaction was calm. The euro fell only slightly by 0.1% against the dollar, and the yield on German 2-year government bonds remained stable at 2.06%, indicating that investors believe there will be no policy shift in the short term. Analysts pointed out that with inflation currently under control, the ECB is expected to maintain an interest rate of 2% for a long time, and the impact of a leadership change will be limited. ⑶ Market focus has shifted to potential successors. Former Spanish central bank governor Marcos de Cos and former Dutch central bank governor Heinrich Knot are considered the main candidates. Analysts believe that Knot is a "pragmatic hawk," while de Cos is more dovish, but both can ensure policy continuity. The ECB's decision-making relies on consensus, and its successor is unlikely to fundamentally change its operating methods. (4) However, some analysts warn that the ECB's reputation could be damaged if it is perceived as depriving the new government of the power to select key economic officials. Lagarde's considerations are interpreted as protecting the ECB from populist political pressure, but whether this risk is worth taking remains controversial. The French central bank governor stepped down early to allow Macron to appoint his successor, foreshadowing a complex interaction between French politics and ECB personnel.