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2026-02-18 21:43:05
[Could Lagarde's Early Resignation Safeguard the Euro? Rabobank's Perspective] ⑴ Rabobank's Head of FX Strategy, Foley, stated on Wednesday that if ECB President Christine Lagarde leaves office before the end of her term, it could have a positive impact on the euro. This view is based on political maneuvering. ⑵ The Financial Times previously reported that Lagarde hopes to leave office before the French presidential election in April 2027 to allow President Macron to participate in the selection of her successor. Recent polls indicate that the far-right National Rally is likely to win the election. ⑶ Foley pointed out that National Rally leader Bardella advocates for the ECB to purchase French government bonds, a policy that could trigger inflation and damage the ECB's credibility. If Lagarde leaves office before the far-right comes to power, it could "eliminate a potential period of downward pressure on the euro." ⑷ However, even if Lagarde steps down early, a Eurosceptic French president would still pose a risk to the euro. Rabobank's analysis reveals the complex interaction between ECB personnel changes and the French political situation.
