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2026-02-19 06:09:27
[The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March rises to 94.1%, and expectations for a rate cut further narrow] 1. According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch," the market expects a 94.1% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has fallen to 5.9%. The market has largely priced in the expectation of a rate cut starting in March. 2. For subsequent meetings: By April, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 20.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 78.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.0%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 49.8%, indicating that the market still considers mid-year as a possible starting point for rate cuts, but expectations have shifted significantly later than at the beginning of the year.
