February 19th Financial Breakfast: Geopolitical risks support gold prices; escalating US-Iran tensions drive oil prices up over 4%.
2026-02-19 07:10:21

Key Focus Today


stock market
U.S. stocks closed higher across the board on Wednesday, boosted by positive news such as Nvidia's chip procurement agreement with Meta. Artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks generally rose, easing market concerns about the AI industry's overvaluation.
At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26% to 49,662.66 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.56% to 6,881.31 points; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.78% to 22,753.64 points.
Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, announced a multi-year agreement with Meta Platforms to sell millions of current and future AI chips. Following this news, Nvidia's stock price rose 1.6%, and Meta's stock price also rose 0.6%.
In addition, storage technology companies performed strongly, benefiting from a surge in AI-related demand. Shares of Sandisk (SNDK.O), Western Digital (WDC.O), and Seagate Technology (STX.O) rose between 1.7% and 4.4%, extending their gains in recent months. Other tech giants also generally rose, with Amazon (AMZN.O) up 1.8% and Microsoft (MSFT.O) up 0.7%.
"When tech stocks weaken to a certain point, they're bound to attract marginal buyers," said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird. "These are still high-growth companies that were previously overvalued and are now more attractive."
Software makers also showed signs of a rebound, with the S&P 500 Software & Services sector (.SPLRCIS) rising 1.1%, driven by better-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue from chip design software provider Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.O), which boosted its share price.
Eight of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 closed higher, with the energy sector (.SPNY) and the consumer discretionary sector (.SPLRCD) leading the gains at 2% and 1%, respectively.
On the economic data front, U.S. business spending and economic growth were strong in the fourth quarter. However, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting revealed that policymakers remained divided on the next steps: several officials were willing to consider raising interest rates given persistently high inflation, while others favored supporting further rate cuts when inflation subsided.
Gold Market
Gold prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday as investors continued to assess geopolitical risks from the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting revealed that officials were divided on the future direction of interest rates.

Spot gold was quoted at $4,992.11 per ounce, up 2.4%. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled up 2.1% at $5,009.50 per ounce.
Marex analysts said that geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have made the market nervous, but gold prices have been trapped in a narrow range for most of the time since February, and it is still difficult to determine a clear direction.
Geopolitically, peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva failed to make a breakthrough. The White House stated that consultations with Iran have only made limited progress, and differences remain between the two sides.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting showed that officials largely agreed to keep interest rates unchanged, but remained divided on the outlook. Several officials warned of a possible rate hike if inflation remained high, while others debated whether further rate cuts were necessary.
Investors are closely watching the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index report, due on Friday, for clues about inflation and its potential impact on borrowing costs.
Spot silver rose 5.2% to $77.24 an ounce; spot platinum rose 3.5% to $2,078.28 an ounce; and palladium rose 1.2% to $1,702.75 an ounce.
oil market
Oil prices rose more than 4% on Wednesday as tensions between the US and Iran escalated and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine failed to make a breakthrough, amid growing concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures rose 4.35% to settle at $70.35 a barrel, while WTI crude futures rose 4.59% to settle at $65.19 a barrel. Both contracts hit their highest closing prices since January 30, and U.S. heating oil futures also surged by about 5%.
Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said that oil price volatility is driven entirely by geopolitical factors, and the market is digesting the additional risk of supply disruptions.
Iran and Russia announced they will hold joint naval exercises in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean on Thursday. This comes after Iran temporarily closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil supply route, to conduct military exercises by its Revolutionary Guard due to security concerns. The political consulting firm Eurasia Group predicts a 65% probability of a US military strike against Iran before the end of April.
Meanwhile, two days of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva failed to make a breakthrough. Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Moscow of delaying US-led mediation efforts to end the four-year war.
U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 609,000 barrels in the week ending February 13, with the market now focused on EIA data.
Foreign exchange market
The euro plunged on Wednesday after reports that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde planned to step down early to allow outgoing French President Emmanuel Macron to participate in the selection of his successor. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened further following the release of several strong U.S. economic data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting.

The European Central Bank stated that Christine Lagarde has not yet made a decision regarding the end of her term, and Executive Board member Jean-Claude Cipolone said he had not received any news of her early departure. Morgan Stanley's global head of foreign exchange strategy stated that the foreign exchange market is primarily focused on recent data and the outlook for monetary policy, and this news is unlikely to affect market movements.
US economic data was stronger than expected. In January, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.6% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.4%; manufacturing output rose 0.6% month-over-month in January, the largest increase since February 2025.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.6% to 97.71, while the euro fell 0.57% to $1.1786. The dollar rose for the third consecutive day, marking its biggest one-day gain since January 30.
The pound fell 0.52% to $1.3499 after the UK's January CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year from 3.4% in December, in line with expectations. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting showed policymakers remained divided on their next steps, with the market pricing in a less than 50% probability of a rate cut before the June meeting.
The dollar rose 0.98% to 154.78 yen after the Trump administration announced the first $36 billion in projects funded by Japan, part of Tokyo's commitment to invest approximately $550 billion to lower tariffs on U.S. goods.
The New Zealand dollar fell 1.39% to US$0.5961, its biggest drop since September 19. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged and indicated that policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time. Goldman Sachs analysts said the statement largely downplayed recent improvements in domestic data.
International News
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March has risen to 94.1%.
According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch," the market expects a 94.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has fallen to 5.9%. The market has largely priced in a rate cut in March. For subsequent meetings: by April, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 20.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 78.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.0%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 49.8%, indicating that the market still considers mid-year as a possible starting point for rate cuts, but expectations have shifted significantly later than at the beginning of the year.
US officials say the US military should complete its Middle East deployment by mid-March.
On February 18th local time, according to senior US officials, President Trump's National Security Advisor discussed the Iran issue at a White House Situation Room meeting, and all US troops involved in the Middle East military buildup should be in place by mid-March. The senior US official also stated that the US hopes Iran will submit a written proposal on resolving the deadlock after the Geneva talks. Furthermore, US Secretary of State Rubio will travel to Israel on February 28th to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss the Iran issue. (CCTV)
Russian Foreign Minister: Russia and the US have agreed to establish a bilateral economic working group to discuss trade and economic issues separately.
The Russian Foreign Ministry released a transcript of an interview with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the 18th local time. In the interview, Lavrov stated that Russia and the United States have agreed to establish a bilateral economic working group to discuss trade and economic issues separately from the Geneva military-political negotiations. Russia wants to understand the Trump administration's specific definition of "mutually beneficial cooperation." Previously, weeks after the Anchorage meeting, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, demanded that India stop buying Russian oil, and allowed Venezuela's oil industry to resume operations while prohibiting Russia and other countries from participating. Lavrov stated, "If the Americans sincerely say that mutually beneficial cooperation will begin after resolving the Ukraine issue, then currently they are trying to squeeze us out of the world energy market." (CCTV News)
White House: Russia and Ukraine made "substantial progress" in Geneva talks
White House Press Secretary Janet Levitt said at a press conference on the 18th that Russia and Ukraine had made "substantial progress" in the trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Geneva, Switzerland, and that a new round of talks would be held in the future. Levitt said that Russia and Ukraine agreed to brief their respective leaders on the talks and continue working together to reach a peace agreement. The trilateral talks were held in Geneva from the 17th to the 18th, and no documents were signed during the talks. The head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, described the negotiations as "difficult but pragmatic." Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the three parties showed a constructive attitude on the military level, but differences remained on the political level. (Xinhua)
Israeli media reports that US military action against Iran is imminent.
On February 18th local time, Israel's Channel 12, citing a senior Israeli official, reported that the "timetable" for a US military strike against Iran is being shortened. Due to the lack of substantial progress in the latest round of US-Iran negotiations, Israel assesses that US President Trump is highly likely to approve the attack plan soon. The report stated that a senior Israeli official confirmed that if the US launches an attack, Israel will join the military action against Iran. Currently, the Israeli military and security services have raised their alert levels across the board. The Israeli rear command and other emergency response agencies have received clear instructions to "prepare for war." The report also stated that intensive consultations are underway at all levels in Israel. The Israeli security cabinet meeting originally scheduled for February 19th has been urgently postponed to February 22nd, a move seen as an adjustment in response to unforeseen circumstances. (CCTV International News)
Trump rescinded regulations that incentivized electric vehicle production to meet fuel economy requirements.
The Trump administration announced Wednesday that it will repeal a regulation that exaggerated fuel efficiency claims and encouraged automakers to produce electric vehicles to meet fuel economy requirements. Environmentalists have long criticized the Department of Energy's regulation, arguing that it assigned unrealistically high fuel economy figures to electric vehicles, which would then be incorporated into the overall fleet average fuel economy calculation under the federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy Act (CAFE). The Department of Energy stated that following an appeals court ruling in September, it will remove the relevant clause, known as the fuel content coefficient, from its calculation method and plans to propose further revisions.
U.S. industrial production saw its biggest increase in nearly a year in January.
U.S. industrial production posted its biggest gain in nearly a year in January, driven by growth in utility and manufacturing output. Data released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday showed that output from factories, mines, and utilities rose 0.7%, with the previous month's figure revised down to 0.2%. Manufacturing output, which accounts for three-quarters of total industrial production, rose 0.6%, the biggest increase since February 2025. Utility output rose 2.1%, while mining and energy extraction declined.
The second Kashiwa Sanae cabinet was officially established.
On the evening of February 18th local time, the appointment ceremony for the Japanese Prime Minister and the at attestation ceremony for the Cabinet Ministers were held at the Imperial Palace, officially establishing the second Sanae Takaichi Cabinet. Earlier that day, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated at a press conference that all cabinet members from the previous cabinet would remain in their positions within the second Sanae Takaichi Cabinet. (CCTV News)
Domestic News
Multiple international media outlets: The humanoid robot performance at the Spring Festival Gala showcases China's rapid development in artificial intelligence.
The spectacular performances by humanoid robots at this year's CCTV Spring Festival Gala left a deep impression, and numerous international media outlets marveled at China's rapid development in humanoid robotics and artificial intelligence. The Spanish newspaper *El País* published an article titled "A Spectacular Performance by Dozens of Chinese Humanoid Robots Showcases Technological Evolution," noting that what is happening in China's robotics field can almost be described as a true revolution. The Associated Press reported that a major highlight of this year's Spring Festival Gala was the martial arts performance featuring teenagers and humanoid robots. France 24 reported that robots stole the show at this year's Spring Festival Gala, with the humanoid robots' kung fu performance being a major highlight. The report stated that the Spring Festival Gala typically showcases the progress of China's technology industry, and the rapidly developing robotics industry became a focus this year. The report concluded that the robot performances demonstrate China's global leadership in the field of robotics. (CCTV News)
A Chinese research team has developed an AI-powered medical system that provides well-founded diagnoses of rare diseases.
On the early morning of February 19th, a team led by Professor Sun Kun and Professor Yu Yongguo of Xinhua Hospital affiliated with Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, in collaboration with a team led by Professor Zhang Ya and Associate Professor Xie Weidi of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, jointly developed an artificial intelligence system capable of diagnosing rare diseases. The related findings were published in the top international journal *Nature* on February 19th (Beijing time). This system, named DeepRare, is hailed as the world's first "traceable reasoning process" intelligent doctor for rare diseases. (CCTV News)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.