Gold and silver prices rose slightly as focus remained on the US-Iran situation.
2026-02-19 22:04:15
Gold and silver prices edged higher in early trading on Thursday (February 19). The precious metals market entered a consolidation phase in the latter half of the week, with market focus shifting to the US military buildup in the Middle East. As of press time, April gold futures were up $7 at $5016.5 per ounce, while March silver futures were up $0.662 at $78.26 per ounce.
Tensions between the US and Iran are escalating, and a military conflict could break out at any moment.
The United States is amassing military forces in the Middle East, and a military strike against Iran seems imminent. Axios reported on Wednesday that "the Trump administration is closer to a large-scale war in the Middle East than most Americans anticipated, and it could break out very soon." CNN also indicated that the US military could launch a military strike against Iran as early as this weekend.
Axios's report further revealed that the US military operation against Iran "is likely to be a large-scale campaign lasting several weeks, far exceeding the precision strikes carried out in Venezuela last month, and closer to a full-scale war." Sources indicated that this operation may be a joint US-Israeli effort, far larger in scope than the 12-day military operation last June led by Israel and subsequently joined by the US—the objective of which was to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities.
Axios analysis states, "This war will have a profound impact on the entire Middle East and will also significantly affect President Trump's remaining three years in office... By amassing a large force, Trump has raised expectations for the scale of military action should an agreement not be reached. Currently, the likelihood of an agreement between the two sides seems extremely slim."
On Tuesday, senior advisors Jared Kushner and Steve Vitkov met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Geneva for three hours. While both sides stated that some progress was made, significant differences remain, and US officials are not optimistic about bridging the gap. US Vice President JD Vance stated that the talks "went well in some areas," but "in other areas, Iran is clearly not ready to acknowledge and resolve the red lines set by the president." He explicitly pointed out that while Trump hopes to resolve the issue through diplomatic means, he may also determine that diplomatic efforts have "reached their limit."
Currently, the US fleet deployed to the Middle East continues to expand, having assembled two aircraft carriers, more than ten warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defense systems. Some troops are still en route to the Middle East. Driven by concerns over the US-Iran conflict, international crude oil prices continued to rise today, with Brent crude futures prices breaking through $71 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures prices breaking through $66 per barrel, both reaching new highs since August last year, continuing their upward trend after a nearly 5% increase in the previous trading day.
The Fed meeting minutes signaled concerns about inflation.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) January meeting, released Wednesday afternoon, showed that Fed officials’ concerns about inflation have resurfaced, with some officials saying that the Fed may need to raise interest rates if inflation continues to rise above the target level.
The meeting minutes revealed that "several participants indicated they preferred to mention in the post-meeting statement the possibility of raising the federal funds rate if inflation remains above the target." Kevin Warsh analyzed that "although the minutes did not show that a majority of officials had considered raising rates, they clearly indicate that the Fed is moving further away from the consensus of 'another rate cut,' which could potentially conflict with the stance of President Trump's nominee for the next Fed chair."
Key data from external markets
In today's external markets, the US dollar index rose 0.17% to 97.89; crude oil prices rose, with US crude oil trading around $66.32 per barrel; and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at 4.097%.
Technical Analysis
(COMEX Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678)
April gold futures: The bulls' next key upside target is a closing price break above the key resistance level of $5250.00/oz; the bears' short-term downside target is to push prices below the key technical support level of $4670.00/oz. The first resistance level to watch is this week's high of $5074.40/oz, followed by $5100.00/oz; the first support level is at $4900.00/oz, followed by this week's low of $4854.20/oz.
(COMEX silver daily chart source: FX678)
March silver futures: The next key upside target for bulls is a closing price break above the key resistance level of $90.00/oz; the next downside target for bears is a closing price break below the key support level of $63.90/oz, the February low. The first resistance level to watch is $80.00/oz, followed by $82.50/oz; the next support level is at $75.00/oz, followed by $73.00/oz.
Note: The gold market operates primarily through two pricing mechanisms: the spot market, where prices correspond to immediate buying, selling, and delivery prices; and the futures market, where prices are set for delivery on a specific future date. Due to year-end position adjustments and market liquidity, the most actively traded gold futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is currently the December contract.
Tensions between the US and Iran are escalating, and a military conflict could break out at any moment.
The United States is amassing military forces in the Middle East, and a military strike against Iran seems imminent. Axios reported on Wednesday that "the Trump administration is closer to a large-scale war in the Middle East than most Americans anticipated, and it could break out very soon." CNN also indicated that the US military could launch a military strike against Iran as early as this weekend.
Axios's report further revealed that the US military operation against Iran "is likely to be a large-scale campaign lasting several weeks, far exceeding the precision strikes carried out in Venezuela last month, and closer to a full-scale war." Sources indicated that this operation may be a joint US-Israeli effort, far larger in scope than the 12-day military operation last June led by Israel and subsequently joined by the US—the objective of which was to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities.
Axios analysis states, "This war will have a profound impact on the entire Middle East and will also significantly affect President Trump's remaining three years in office... By amassing a large force, Trump has raised expectations for the scale of military action should an agreement not be reached. Currently, the likelihood of an agreement between the two sides seems extremely slim."
On Tuesday, senior advisors Jared Kushner and Steve Vitkov met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Geneva for three hours. While both sides stated that some progress was made, significant differences remain, and US officials are not optimistic about bridging the gap. US Vice President JD Vance stated that the talks "went well in some areas," but "in other areas, Iran is clearly not ready to acknowledge and resolve the red lines set by the president." He explicitly pointed out that while Trump hopes to resolve the issue through diplomatic means, he may also determine that diplomatic efforts have "reached their limit."
Currently, the US fleet deployed to the Middle East continues to expand, having assembled two aircraft carriers, more than ten warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defense systems. Some troops are still en route to the Middle East. Driven by concerns over the US-Iran conflict, international crude oil prices continued to rise today, with Brent crude futures prices breaking through $71 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures prices breaking through $66 per barrel, both reaching new highs since August last year, continuing their upward trend after a nearly 5% increase in the previous trading day.
The Fed meeting minutes signaled concerns about inflation.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) January meeting, released Wednesday afternoon, showed that Fed officials’ concerns about inflation have resurfaced, with some officials saying that the Fed may need to raise interest rates if inflation continues to rise above the target level.
The meeting minutes revealed that "several participants indicated they preferred to mention in the post-meeting statement the possibility of raising the federal funds rate if inflation remains above the target." Kevin Warsh analyzed that "although the minutes did not show that a majority of officials had considered raising rates, they clearly indicate that the Fed is moving further away from the consensus of 'another rate cut,' which could potentially conflict with the stance of President Trump's nominee for the next Fed chair."
Key data from external markets
In today's external markets, the US dollar index rose 0.17% to 97.89; crude oil prices rose, with US crude oil trading around $66.32 per barrel; and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at 4.097%.
Technical Analysis
(COMEX Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678)
April gold futures: The bulls' next key upside target is a closing price break above the key resistance level of $5250.00/oz; the bears' short-term downside target is to push prices below the key technical support level of $4670.00/oz. The first resistance level to watch is this week's high of $5074.40/oz, followed by $5100.00/oz; the first support level is at $4900.00/oz, followed by this week's low of $4854.20/oz.
(COMEX silver daily chart source: FX678)
March silver futures: The next key upside target for bulls is a closing price break above the key resistance level of $90.00/oz; the next downside target for bears is a closing price break below the key support level of $63.90/oz, the February low. The first resistance level to watch is $80.00/oz, followed by $82.50/oz; the next support level is at $75.00/oz, followed by $73.00/oz.
Note: The gold market operates primarily through two pricing mechanisms: the spot market, where prices correspond to immediate buying, selling, and delivery prices; and the futures market, where prices are set for delivery on a specific future date. Due to year-end position adjustments and market liquidity, the most actively traded gold futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is currently the December contract.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
