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2026-02-20 03:26:31
Researchers have praised the emerging platform Kalshi's market forecasting data in a new paper published by the Federal Reserve, a significant endorsement for the platform as it gradually integrates into the economic mainstream. The researchers found that Kalshi's market forecasting performance may outperform traditional derivatives and survey forecasts in predicting key economic data. Anthony M. Dirks of the Federal Reserve, Jared Dean Katz of Northwestern University, and Jonathan Wright of the National Bureau of Economic Research wrote, "Our research highlights the potential of forecasting markets as a new benchmark for measuring market expectations and providing insights for monetary policy decisions." They also stated that Kalshi's performance was comparable to Bloomberg's consensus forecasts on core inflation and unemployment data, and superior in overall inflation forecasts.
