February 20th Financial Breakfast: The US sets a deadline for sanctions against Iran; gold prices consolidate around the $5,000 mark; oil prices surge by over 2%.
2026-02-20 07:08:50
On Friday (February 20, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold traded around $5,000 per ounce, with prices generally moving sideways. The situation in Iran provided support for gold prices, but analysts pointed out that in addition to geopolitical factors, gold prices may still experience further volatility. US crude oil traded around $66.54 per barrel. Oil prices rose more than 2% on Thursday, with the settlement price hitting a six-month high, as traders worried about escalating tensions between the US and Iran, with the US setting a 10-day deadline for sanctions against Iran.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, with private equity stocks falling across the board due to liquidity concerns and heavyweight stocks such as Walmart and Apple underperforming. However, the industrial sector was supported by strong earnings from Deere & Co., limiting the overall market decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.54% to close at 49,395.16, the S&P 500 fell 0.28% to close at 6,861.89, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.31% to close at 22,682.73.
Blue Owl Capital's shares plunged 6% after it sold assets and froze fund redemptions to manage debt. This also dragged down Apollo Global Management, Ares, KKR, and Carlyle Group, which saw declines ranging from 1.9% to 5.2%.
Heavyweight stocks dragged down the index, with Apple falling 1.4% and becoming the biggest drag on the S&P 500; Walmart fell 1.4% after releasing a conservative fiscal year 2027 forecast.
Industrial stocks bucked the trend, with Deere & Co. surging 11.6% after raising its full-year earnings forecast and reporting better-than-expected quarterly results, leading the industrial sector's performance. The energy sector closed 0.6% higher due to rising oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions.
The AI concept continues to fluctuate, with market concerns about overvaluation and unclear investment returns causing volatility in related tech stocks. Analysts point out that investors are identifying which businesses will be substantially threatened by AI.
Initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week, indicating a stabilizing labor market. The market is closely watching Friday's PCE inflation data to determine the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Currently, interest rate futures suggest a 50% probability of a rate cut before June.
Spot gold closed at $4,979.18 an ounce on Thursday, unchanged from the previous trading day. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 0.2% to $4,997.40.
The market is consolidating sideways. The situation in Iran is providing support for gold prices, but analysts point out that in addition to geopolitical factors, gold prices may still experience further volatility.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 last week, lower than expected, indicating a stabilizing labor market. Market focus has now shifted to Friday's release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key indicator of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
In other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.6% to $77.66, continuing the previous day's gains; spot platinum fell 0.8%; and palladium fell 2.6%.
Oil prices rose about 2% on Thursday, settling at a six-month high, as traders worried about escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Brent crude futures settled up 1.9% at $71.66 a barrel, while WTI crude futures settled up 1.9% at $66.43 a barrel, both the highest levels since the end of July last year.
Analysts say geopolitical tensions and market concerns about potential U.S. military action against Iran have driven up oil prices. Iran plans joint naval exercises with Russia, after briefly closing the Strait of Hormuz several days earlier for the exercises. U.S. President Trump warned Iran on Thursday that a deal on its nuclear program must be reached, or "bad things" would happen, and appeared to set a 10-day deadline. The U.S. has already deployed aircraft carriers, warships, and fighter jets to the region.
Data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports fell to 6.988 million barrels per day, the lowest level since September. U.S. crude oil inventories plunged by 9 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations, while gasoline and distillate fuel inventories also declined, further supporting oil prices.
The dollar strengthened for the fourth straight session on Thursday as data showed the U.S. labor market was stabilizing, giving the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 23,000 to 206,000 last week, below market expectations. Meanwhile, the trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion in December, far exceeding expectations.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.19% to 97.88. The euro fell 0.14% to $1.1766, extending its losses from the previous trading day.
The market is currently pricing in no more than a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut before June. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that the labor market remains "quite resilient."
In other currencies, the US dollar rose 0.06% against the Japanese yen to 154.92 yen, while the British pound fell 0.25% to $1.3457.
The U.S. military has assembled its largest air force in nearly 23 years; Trump issues another ultimatum to Iran.
A new round of US-Iran talks has concluded, but the situation remains tense. The US continues to tighten its timetable, advancing military deployments and political pressure simultaneously; Israel claims to be "prepared for any eventuality"; and Iran says it is simultaneously negotiating and preparing for war, strengthening its defenses and conducting military exercises. Amidst this escalating tension, US President Trump set another deadline on the 19th, stating that whether the US and Iran will reach an agreement will be clear in "the next ten days or so." Whether to negotiate or fight remains uncertain. (CCTV News)
Russia says it will analyze the results of the Russia-US-Ukraine talks to determine the details of the next round of consultations.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated on the 19th that the majority of European countries' views on the Ukraine issue lean towards perpetuating the conflict rather than promoting a peaceful resolution. Peskov told the media that day that European representatives did not participate in the trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine in Geneva, Switzerland. Under the current trilateral framework, Russia believes that involving European participation in the Ukraine negotiation process "makes no sense." Peskov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had received a briefing from the Russian delegation on the results of the Geneva talks. When asked about the main topics of the talks, Peskov said that the negotiations are currently at a stage where public discussion is not appropriate, and Russia will not disclose relevant details. Russia will determine the time and place for the next round of consultations based on its analysis of the talks' results. (CCTV News)
Israeli Prime Minister: Iran will face "unimaginable" retaliation if it attacks Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the 19th again threatened Iran, saying that if Iran attacks Israel in response to a US military strike, it will face "unimaginable" retaliation. Speaking at the graduation ceremony of Israel Defense Forces cadets, Netanyahu said Israel is prepared for any eventuality and is acting alongside its key ally, the United States, to counter the "threat" from Iran.
Federal Reserve's Milan: No longer believes the Fed should cut rates as sharply this year as previously expected.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has lowered his expectations for the magnitude of Fed rate cuts this year, stating in an interview that recent data shows the U.S. economy is stronger than he previously predicted. Milan said the latest data shows a better-than-expected employment situation, while commodity inflation is proving more stubborn. Therefore, Milan indicated he no longer believes the Fed should cut rates as sharply this year as he predicted two months ago. "The labor market is better than I expected in the last few months," Milan said in the interview. "There are signs that commodity inflation is becoming more stubborn." He added, "Taking both of these factors together, I will retract my December prediction." In the Fed's quarterly dot plot last December, Milan projected interest rates would fall below 2.25% by the end of this year; now he is more inclined to return to his relatively dovish stance from September, which projects rates to be below 2.75% by the end of 2026. Milan's latest stance implies that the Fed will cut rates by a full percentage point this year from the current 3.5% to 3.75% level. Even so, he remains one of the most dovish officials within the Federal Reserve, a stark contrast to the majority of officials who expect only a 25 basis point rate cut this year. However, this interview is noteworthy because it suggests a greater divergence between Milan's views and the economic policy stance of the White House where he previously served.
Russian Foreign Minister: Demanding Iran completely relinquish its uranium enrichment rights is "inappropriate".
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on the 18th that the demand made by Iran during the Geneva negotiations to completely relinquish its right to uranium enrichment was "inappropriate." According to the Russian Foreign Ministry website, Lavrov said in an interview with Al Arabiya satellite television that day that inappropriate statements were made during the US-Iran Geneva talks, demanding that Iran completely relinquish its right to enrich uranium for any purpose, significantly reduce its missile program, and cease exerting influence on any political forces in the region. Lavrov believes that Iran has the right to conduct uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes. (Xinhua)
German Chancellor Merz has indicated his intention to seek re-election.
On February 18 local time, German Chancellor André Merz stated at a CDU event in Trier that he hopes to continue serving as Chancellor after the 2029 federal elections, seeking a second term. He said, "I intend to continue this work for a considerable period." The next German federal election is scheduled for 2029. The CDU will hold a meeting in Stuttgart on February 20, where Merz will run again for party chairman. CDU Secretary General Jean-Michel Linnemann stated that it is too early to discuss whether Merz will run again as a candidate for Chancellor. (CCTV News)
The Trump administration plans to block housing assistance for families with mixed immigrant status.
Tens of thousands of people from mixed-status immigrant households will lose public housing benefits under a proposed rule from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The proposed rule, released Thursday, would require verification of U.S. citizenship or eligible immigrant status for all family members, regardless of age, to receive public assistance. The new rule would also pro rataly suspend housing subsidies until the eligibility of all family members is verified. Current regulations allow pro rata subsidies to be provided indefinitely to eligible family members. Under the proposal, even U.S. citizens in mixed-status households would be deprived of benefits.
Colombia announces its membership in the International Energy Agency.
On February 19 local time, the Colombian Ministry of Energy issued a statement announcing that Colombia has become a full member of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The Ministry stated that Colombia initiated the process of joining the IEA in 2021, becoming the organization's 33rd member.
India plans to build $200 billion data centers
On the 17th local time, Indian government officials stated that India plans to invest $200 billion over the next few years to build a number of data centers in order to promote the development of the artificial intelligence industry. According to reports, the Indian government has planned a large-scale digital infrastructure construction plan. Indian Minister of Electronics and Information Technology Vaishnaw stated on the 17th that recent investments in AI-related projects in India by companies such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have also been included in the $200 billion construction plan. The Indian government has already launched a shared computing facility, enabling startups, researchers, and public institutions to access advanced computing power without incurring high upfront costs. (CCTV)
Hungary threatens to halt electricity and natural gas exports to Ukraine.
On February 19th local time, Hungarian Minister of the Prime Minister's Office, Gulyás Georgy, stated that if Ukraine continues to block oil shipments to Hungary via the "Friendship" pipeline, Hungary will take further retaliatory measures, and is currently considering halting electricity and natural gas exports to Ukraine. Georgy stated that Ukraine's actions are "unacceptable" and violate its commitments to the European Union. Furthermore, he revealed that Hungary has released its strategic oil reserves, enough to sustain the country for three months.
The scale of public data resource supply in my country continues to expand, with the total number of registered items exceeding 250,000.
On the 19th, it was learned from the National Data Administration that the scale of my country's public data resource supply continues to expand. The latest data shows that the total number of registered items on the National Public Data Resource Registration Platform has exceeded 250,000, with over 70,000 items of open data from various regions connected, covering all major sectors of the national economy and involving multiple fields such as administrative law enforcement, social security, health, and credit services. (CCTV News)
The number of daily transportation trips during the 2026 Spring Festival travel rush exceeded 300 million.
According to the Ministry of Transport, on February 18 (the 17th day of the Spring Festival travel rush, the second day of the Lunar New Year), the total number of cross-regional passenger trips reached 323 million, a 9.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025. This marks the first time the daily number of passenger trips during the 2026 Spring Festival travel rush has exceeded 300 million. Specifically, the number of passenger trips by road reached 308 million, a 9.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Among these, the number of non-commercial passenger car trips on expressways and ordinary national and provincial highways reached 287 million, a 9.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025; while the number of commercial passenger trips by road reached 20.98 million, an 8.9% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Railway passenger traffic reached 10.801 million, an increase of 11.6% compared to the same period in 2025; waterway passenger traffic reached 1.565 million, an increase of 18.9% compared to the same period in 2025; and civil aviation passenger traffic reached 2.473 million, an increase of 9.2% compared to the same period in 2025. (Xinhua)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, with private equity stocks falling across the board due to liquidity concerns and heavyweight stocks such as Walmart and Apple underperforming. However, the industrial sector was supported by strong earnings from Deere & Co., limiting the overall market decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.54% to close at 49,395.16, the S&P 500 fell 0.28% to close at 6,861.89, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.31% to close at 22,682.73.
Blue Owl Capital's shares plunged 6% after it sold assets and froze fund redemptions to manage debt. This also dragged down Apollo Global Management, Ares, KKR, and Carlyle Group, which saw declines ranging from 1.9% to 5.2%.
Heavyweight stocks dragged down the index, with Apple falling 1.4% and becoming the biggest drag on the S&P 500; Walmart fell 1.4% after releasing a conservative fiscal year 2027 forecast.
Industrial stocks bucked the trend, with Deere & Co. surging 11.6% after raising its full-year earnings forecast and reporting better-than-expected quarterly results, leading the industrial sector's performance. The energy sector closed 0.6% higher due to rising oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions.
The AI concept continues to fluctuate, with market concerns about overvaluation and unclear investment returns causing volatility in related tech stocks. Analysts point out that investors are identifying which businesses will be substantially threatened by AI.
Initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week, indicating a stabilizing labor market. The market is closely watching Friday's PCE inflation data to determine the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Currently, interest rate futures suggest a 50% probability of a rate cut before June.
Gold Market
Spot gold closed at $4,979.18 an ounce on Thursday, unchanged from the previous trading day. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 0.2% to $4,997.40.
The market is consolidating sideways. The situation in Iran is providing support for gold prices, but analysts point out that in addition to geopolitical factors, gold prices may still experience further volatility.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 last week, lower than expected, indicating a stabilizing labor market. Market focus has now shifted to Friday's release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key indicator of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
In other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.6% to $77.66, continuing the previous day's gains; spot platinum fell 0.8%; and palladium fell 2.6%.
oil market
Oil prices rose about 2% on Thursday, settling at a six-month high, as traders worried about escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Brent crude futures settled up 1.9% at $71.66 a barrel, while WTI crude futures settled up 1.9% at $66.43 a barrel, both the highest levels since the end of July last year.
Analysts say geopolitical tensions and market concerns about potential U.S. military action against Iran have driven up oil prices. Iran plans joint naval exercises with Russia, after briefly closing the Strait of Hormuz several days earlier for the exercises. U.S. President Trump warned Iran on Thursday that a deal on its nuclear program must be reached, or "bad things" would happen, and appeared to set a 10-day deadline. The U.S. has already deployed aircraft carriers, warships, and fighter jets to the region.
Data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports fell to 6.988 million barrels per day, the lowest level since September. U.S. crude oil inventories plunged by 9 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations, while gasoline and distillate fuel inventories also declined, further supporting oil prices.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar strengthened for the fourth straight session on Thursday as data showed the U.S. labor market was stabilizing, giving the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 23,000 to 206,000 last week, below market expectations. Meanwhile, the trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion in December, far exceeding expectations.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.19% to 97.88. The euro fell 0.14% to $1.1766, extending its losses from the previous trading day.
The market is currently pricing in no more than a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut before June. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that the labor market remains "quite resilient."
In other currencies, the US dollar rose 0.06% against the Japanese yen to 154.92 yen, while the British pound fell 0.25% to $1.3457.
International News
The U.S. military has assembled its largest air force in nearly 23 years; Trump issues another ultimatum to Iran.
A new round of US-Iran talks has concluded, but the situation remains tense. The US continues to tighten its timetable, advancing military deployments and political pressure simultaneously; Israel claims to be "prepared for any eventuality"; and Iran says it is simultaneously negotiating and preparing for war, strengthening its defenses and conducting military exercises. Amidst this escalating tension, US President Trump set another deadline on the 19th, stating that whether the US and Iran will reach an agreement will be clear in "the next ten days or so." Whether to negotiate or fight remains uncertain. (CCTV News)
Russia says it will analyze the results of the Russia-US-Ukraine talks to determine the details of the next round of consultations.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated on the 19th that the majority of European countries' views on the Ukraine issue lean towards perpetuating the conflict rather than promoting a peaceful resolution. Peskov told the media that day that European representatives did not participate in the trilateral talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine in Geneva, Switzerland. Under the current trilateral framework, Russia believes that involving European participation in the Ukraine negotiation process "makes no sense." Peskov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had received a briefing from the Russian delegation on the results of the Geneva talks. When asked about the main topics of the talks, Peskov said that the negotiations are currently at a stage where public discussion is not appropriate, and Russia will not disclose relevant details. Russia will determine the time and place for the next round of consultations based on its analysis of the talks' results. (CCTV News)
Israeli Prime Minister: Iran will face "unimaginable" retaliation if it attacks Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the 19th again threatened Iran, saying that if Iran attacks Israel in response to a US military strike, it will face "unimaginable" retaliation. Speaking at the graduation ceremony of Israel Defense Forces cadets, Netanyahu said Israel is prepared for any eventuality and is acting alongside its key ally, the United States, to counter the "threat" from Iran.
Federal Reserve's Milan: No longer believes the Fed should cut rates as sharply this year as previously expected.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has lowered his expectations for the magnitude of Fed rate cuts this year, stating in an interview that recent data shows the U.S. economy is stronger than he previously predicted. Milan said the latest data shows a better-than-expected employment situation, while commodity inflation is proving more stubborn. Therefore, Milan indicated he no longer believes the Fed should cut rates as sharply this year as he predicted two months ago. "The labor market is better than I expected in the last few months," Milan said in the interview. "There are signs that commodity inflation is becoming more stubborn." He added, "Taking both of these factors together, I will retract my December prediction." In the Fed's quarterly dot plot last December, Milan projected interest rates would fall below 2.25% by the end of this year; now he is more inclined to return to his relatively dovish stance from September, which projects rates to be below 2.75% by the end of 2026. Milan's latest stance implies that the Fed will cut rates by a full percentage point this year from the current 3.5% to 3.75% level. Even so, he remains one of the most dovish officials within the Federal Reserve, a stark contrast to the majority of officials who expect only a 25 basis point rate cut this year. However, this interview is noteworthy because it suggests a greater divergence between Milan's views and the economic policy stance of the White House where he previously served.
Russian Foreign Minister: Demanding Iran completely relinquish its uranium enrichment rights is "inappropriate".
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on the 18th that the demand made by Iran during the Geneva negotiations to completely relinquish its right to uranium enrichment was "inappropriate." According to the Russian Foreign Ministry website, Lavrov said in an interview with Al Arabiya satellite television that day that inappropriate statements were made during the US-Iran Geneva talks, demanding that Iran completely relinquish its right to enrich uranium for any purpose, significantly reduce its missile program, and cease exerting influence on any political forces in the region. Lavrov believes that Iran has the right to conduct uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes. (Xinhua)
German Chancellor Merz has indicated his intention to seek re-election.
On February 18 local time, German Chancellor André Merz stated at a CDU event in Trier that he hopes to continue serving as Chancellor after the 2029 federal elections, seeking a second term. He said, "I intend to continue this work for a considerable period." The next German federal election is scheduled for 2029. The CDU will hold a meeting in Stuttgart on February 20, where Merz will run again for party chairman. CDU Secretary General Jean-Michel Linnemann stated that it is too early to discuss whether Merz will run again as a candidate for Chancellor. (CCTV News)
The Trump administration plans to block housing assistance for families with mixed immigrant status.
Tens of thousands of people from mixed-status immigrant households will lose public housing benefits under a proposed rule from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The proposed rule, released Thursday, would require verification of U.S. citizenship or eligible immigrant status for all family members, regardless of age, to receive public assistance. The new rule would also pro rataly suspend housing subsidies until the eligibility of all family members is verified. Current regulations allow pro rata subsidies to be provided indefinitely to eligible family members. Under the proposal, even U.S. citizens in mixed-status households would be deprived of benefits.
Colombia announces its membership in the International Energy Agency.
On February 19 local time, the Colombian Ministry of Energy issued a statement announcing that Colombia has become a full member of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The Ministry stated that Colombia initiated the process of joining the IEA in 2021, becoming the organization's 33rd member.
India plans to build $200 billion data centers
On the 17th local time, Indian government officials stated that India plans to invest $200 billion over the next few years to build a number of data centers in order to promote the development of the artificial intelligence industry. According to reports, the Indian government has planned a large-scale digital infrastructure construction plan. Indian Minister of Electronics and Information Technology Vaishnaw stated on the 17th that recent investments in AI-related projects in India by companies such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have also been included in the $200 billion construction plan. The Indian government has already launched a shared computing facility, enabling startups, researchers, and public institutions to access advanced computing power without incurring high upfront costs. (CCTV)
Hungary threatens to halt electricity and natural gas exports to Ukraine.
On February 19th local time, Hungarian Minister of the Prime Minister's Office, Gulyás Georgy, stated that if Ukraine continues to block oil shipments to Hungary via the "Friendship" pipeline, Hungary will take further retaliatory measures, and is currently considering halting electricity and natural gas exports to Ukraine. Georgy stated that Ukraine's actions are "unacceptable" and violate its commitments to the European Union. Furthermore, he revealed that Hungary has released its strategic oil reserves, enough to sustain the country for three months.
Domestic News
The scale of public data resource supply in my country continues to expand, with the total number of registered items exceeding 250,000.
On the 19th, it was learned from the National Data Administration that the scale of my country's public data resource supply continues to expand. The latest data shows that the total number of registered items on the National Public Data Resource Registration Platform has exceeded 250,000, with over 70,000 items of open data from various regions connected, covering all major sectors of the national economy and involving multiple fields such as administrative law enforcement, social security, health, and credit services. (CCTV News)
The number of daily transportation trips during the 2026 Spring Festival travel rush exceeded 300 million.
According to the Ministry of Transport, on February 18 (the 17th day of the Spring Festival travel rush, the second day of the Lunar New Year), the total number of cross-regional passenger trips reached 323 million, a 9.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025. This marks the first time the daily number of passenger trips during the 2026 Spring Festival travel rush has exceeded 300 million. Specifically, the number of passenger trips by road reached 308 million, a 9.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Among these, the number of non-commercial passenger car trips on expressways and ordinary national and provincial highways reached 287 million, a 9.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025; while the number of commercial passenger trips by road reached 20.98 million, an 8.9% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Railway passenger traffic reached 10.801 million, an increase of 11.6% compared to the same period in 2025; waterway passenger traffic reached 1.565 million, an increase of 18.9% compared to the same period in 2025; and civil aviation passenger traffic reached 2.473 million, an increase of 9.2% compared to the same period in 2025. (Xinhua)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
