Crude oil trading alert: Geopolitical tensions accelerate oil price increases.
2026-02-20 09:05:21
US crude oil prices continued to rise during Asian trading hours on Friday, trading around $66.50. This was mainly due to the significant escalation of tensions between the US and Iran this week. Trump publicly stated that he expects to know within the next 10 days whether a "meaningful agreement" can be reached with Iran.
Otherwise, "something terrible" will happen. Earlier reports indicated that the US military had completed preparations for a military strike against Iraq, which could take place as early as this weekend.
On the Israeli side, Netanyahu emphasized that Israel is "fighting side by side" with the United States and that if Iran takes military action, it will face "unimaginable responses."
Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Grossi pointed out that the US military buildup in the Middle East means that the window for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue is narrowing.
Iran, meanwhile, has entered a state of full military readiness, with the president and supreme leader sending strong signals, conducting naval exercises, and even hinting at the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Given that approximately one-third of global crude oil supply comes from the Middle East, the global energy market would be severely impacted should the situation spiral out of control. The energy market has already reacted in advance.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 9 million barrels, the largest drop since September of last year, with refined product inventories declining in tandem, further pushing up oil prices. The combination of geopolitical risk premiums and inventory declines has supported strong oil prices.
From the WTI daily chart, oil prices broke through the upper edge of the previous trading range and stabilized above $65, indicating a strengthening structure. Currently, the price is moving upwards along the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with short-term moving averages showing a bullish alignment.
After the MACD indicator formed a golden cross above the zero line, the momentum bars continued to expand, indicating that the upward momentum was strengthening; the RSI rose above 60 but has not yet entered the overbought zone, indicating that there is still room for further upward movement.
Key resistance levels to watch are $68.00 and the psychological level of $70.00; if geopolitical risks escalate further, a test of the $72 area cannot be ruled out. Support levels are at $64.50 and $62.80.
The overall structure shows clear signs of a trend breakout, and short-term pullbacks may present opportunities for bulls to position themselves, but caution is advised against the risk of a rapid decline due to a sudden easing of diplomatic tensions.
Editor's Note:
The current upward trend in crude oil prices is based on a clear logic: geopolitical conflict risks and a significant drop in inventories provide dual support. Trump's setting of a negotiation deadline has led the market to prematurely price in the probability of military conflict, causing a rapid increase in risk premiums.
Oil prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but if negotiations break through or military action fails to materialize, prices may quickly give back some of their gains. Close attention should be paid to US-Iran developments and inventory data changes, and a flexible approach should be taken in response to both emerging trends and unexpected news.
Otherwise, "something terrible" will happen. Earlier reports indicated that the US military had completed preparations for a military strike against Iraq, which could take place as early as this weekend.
On the Israeli side, Netanyahu emphasized that Israel is "fighting side by side" with the United States and that if Iran takes military action, it will face "unimaginable responses."
Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Grossi pointed out that the US military buildup in the Middle East means that the window for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue is narrowing.
Iran, meanwhile, has entered a state of full military readiness, with the president and supreme leader sending strong signals, conducting naval exercises, and even hinting at the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Given that approximately one-third of global crude oil supply comes from the Middle East, the global energy market would be severely impacted should the situation spiral out of control. The energy market has already reacted in advance.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 9 million barrels, the largest drop since September of last year, with refined product inventories declining in tandem, further pushing up oil prices. The combination of geopolitical risk premiums and inventory declines has supported strong oil prices.
From the WTI daily chart, oil prices broke through the upper edge of the previous trading range and stabilized above $65, indicating a strengthening structure. Currently, the price is moving upwards along the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with short-term moving averages showing a bullish alignment.
After the MACD indicator formed a golden cross above the zero line, the momentum bars continued to expand, indicating that the upward momentum was strengthening; the RSI rose above 60 but has not yet entered the overbought zone, indicating that there is still room for further upward movement.
Key resistance levels to watch are $68.00 and the psychological level of $70.00; if geopolitical risks escalate further, a test of the $72 area cannot be ruled out. Support levels are at $64.50 and $62.80.
The overall structure shows clear signs of a trend breakout, and short-term pullbacks may present opportunities for bulls to position themselves, but caution is advised against the risk of a rapid decline due to a sudden easing of diplomatic tensions.
Editor's Note:
The current upward trend in crude oil prices is based on a clear logic: geopolitical conflict risks and a significant drop in inventories provide dual support. Trump's setting of a negotiation deadline has led the market to prematurely price in the probability of military conflict, causing a rapid increase in risk premiums.
Oil prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but if negotiations break through or military action fails to materialize, prices may quickly give back some of their gains. Close attention should be paid to US-Iran developments and inventory data changes, and a flexible approach should be taken in response to both emerging trends and unexpected news.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
