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2026-02-20 16:39:48
[Gold Prices Hold Above $5,000: Safe-Haven and Interest Rate Game Enters a New Phase] ⑴ International gold prices held steady at historically high levels. New York gold futures rose 0.7% to $5,030.70 in early trading on Friday, successfully holding the $5,000 mark. This milestone price level reflects the deep interplay between strong market demand for safe-haven assets and macroeconomic uncertainty. ⑵ Geopolitical risks are currently the core support for gold prices. The US military deployment in the Middle East and concerns about potential strikes against Iran continue to fuel safe-haven sentiment. Although the market has partially priced in this factor, as long as the risk of conflict persists, the safe-haven premium for gold will be difficult to diminish. ⑶ Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group pointed out that gold prices experienced a sharp correction after hitting a record high in January, with speculative trading amplifying short-term volatility. However, the fundamental factors supporting the long-term trend of gold remain solid, including the continued existence of geopolitical risks and the strategic shift of funds from traditional assets. ⑷ Interest rate expectations remain a key variable determining the next direction of gold prices. The market is focused on Friday's release of US personal consumption expenditure data, a preferred inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve, whose performance will directly impact expectations of interest rate paths. If the data falls short of expectations, it could strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts, thus boosting gold; conversely, if the data remains lackluster, it could put pressure on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Above $5,000, gold is seeking a new balance between the logic of safe-haven demand and interest rates.
