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2026-02-20 16:39:58
[Inflation Data to be Released Soon, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Face Major Test] ⑴ At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the US will release the December Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP for the fourth quarter. These two key data points will jointly test whether the US economy is truly as resilient as the market expects. ⑵ The inflation outlook has become the focus of market speculation. The market generally expects a moderate rebound in core PCE. If the actual data confirms this judgment, it will further strengthen the narrative that inflation remains sticky, thereby weakening the urgency of a rate cut this year. ⑶ Growth data is equally crucial. If the final GDP figure for the fourth quarter confirms that the economy is maintaining robust expansion, coupled with a rebound in inflation, it will provide double support for the Fed's current stance of holding rates steady. Recent signals from policymakers have shown that the threshold for a policy shift remains high before confirming a clear return of inflation to the target. ⑷ The interest rate futures market will subsequently repric. If the data mix is hawkish, the expected timing of a rate cut this year will be further delayed, putting short-term pressure on non-interest-bearing assets and risk assets. Conversely, if the data is unexpectedly weak, it may reignite expectations of a rate cut. Market volatility is imminent, and investors should be wary of sharp fluctuations before and after the data release.
