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2026-02-20 16:57:50
[The Geopolitical Game Behind the US-India Energy Deal] ⑴ The US is using energy supply as a core bargaining chip in its trade negotiations with India. By directly linking India's reduced purchases of Russian crude oil to tariff preferences, Washington is attempting to establish a new balance between energy flows and trade interests. Venezuelan oil's access to the Indian market has been granted by the US, becoming one of the alternative options. ⑵ As the world's third-largest oil importer, India faces a dual struggle between external pressure and internal demand in diversifying its energy sources. On the one hand, becoming Russia's largest customer for seaborne crude oil after the Russia-Ukraine conflict exposes it to compliance risks under Western sanctions; on the other hand, maintaining low import costs is crucial for its domestic economy. ⑶ The US's licensing of Venezuelan oil supplies is selective. Following the political changes in Venezuela, sales licenses were issued only to specific trading companies, rather than being fully opened. This targeted authorization allows the US to influence the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to some extent while avoiding direct involvement in energy supply negotiations with India. ⑷ The pace of the US-India interim trade agreement is linked to energy purchase commitments. The US envoy has clearly stated that India will purchase more oil from the US and may also purchase from Venezuela. This dual-track approach aims to systematically dilute Russia's share of India's energy imports, rather than simply seeking a substitute for a single supply source. (5) For India, accepting oil from the United States and Venezuela, which is licensed by the US, represents a compromise between trade preferences and diplomatic balance. Its refineries have already begun placing orders for Venezuelan crude oil while maintaining existing supply relationships with Russia. This multi-pronged procurement strategy allows it to maintain a certain degree of strategic maneuvering among major powers.
