The Middle East powder keg triggered safe-haven buying, pushing gold prices up for three consecutive days. Will the PCE data tonight add fuel to the fire?
2026-02-20 16:59:41
On Friday (February 20), spot gold rose for the third consecutive trading day during the European session, currently trading around $5,015 per ounce, up approximately 0.35% on the day. However, given the mixed fundamentals, upside potential appears limited. Furthermore, traders may choose to wait for the release of key US macroeconomic data—the preliminary fourth-quarter GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—before making new directional bets. These key data will play a crucial role in influencing market expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cut path, which in turn will drive the dollar's performance and provide meaningful support for non-interest-bearing gold.
US President Trump warned Iran on Thursday that it must reach an agreement on its nuclear program or face serious consequences, setting a 10- to 15-day deadline. In response, Iran told UN Secretary-General Guterres that it does not seek war but will not tolerate military aggression. Iran added that all bases and assets of hostile forces in the region would be legitimate targets if attacked. This increases the risk of military confrontation and broader conflict in the Middle East, which continues to support safe-haven gold, supporting a modest rise on the last trading day of the week.
Meanwhile, the minutes of the January FOMC monetary policy meeting showed that the Federal Reserve was in no hurry to cut interest rates further, and officials also discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation did not cool down. Furthermore, the latest data indicated an unusually resilient US labor market, which, coupled with hawkish comments from Fed officials, forced investors to reduce their bets on more aggressive easing. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut were repriced, pushing the dollar to a two-week high (98.01) on Friday and limiting gold's upside potential, warranting caution from gold bulls.
Overnight, gold prices found support and rebounded near the 100-hour moving average (MA, 4963.89), a level that has now become support. Nevertheless, the lack of follow-through buying and the range-bound trading over the past two days should warrant caution from bullish traders. This MA is currently providing near-term dynamic support.
Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is expanding in the positive range, suggesting a strengthening bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline, consistent with the tentative recovery tone.
If gold prices hold above the 100-period moving average, the intraday risk will be skewed to the upside. Conversely, if MACD momentum weakens and the RSI falls below the midline, the recovery will become fragile, and prices may retest moving average support before re-establishing a direction.
(Spot gold hourly chart, source: EasyForex)
At 16:16 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $5012.14 per ounce.
US President Trump warned Iran on Thursday that it must reach an agreement on its nuclear program or face serious consequences, setting a 10- to 15-day deadline. In response, Iran told UN Secretary-General Guterres that it does not seek war but will not tolerate military aggression. Iran added that all bases and assets of hostile forces in the region would be legitimate targets if attacked. This increases the risk of military confrontation and broader conflict in the Middle East, which continues to support safe-haven gold, supporting a modest rise on the last trading day of the week.
Meanwhile, the minutes of the January FOMC monetary policy meeting showed that the Federal Reserve was in no hurry to cut interest rates further, and officials also discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation did not cool down. Furthermore, the latest data indicated an unusually resilient US labor market, which, coupled with hawkish comments from Fed officials, forced investors to reduce their bets on more aggressive easing. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut were repriced, pushing the dollar to a two-week high (98.01) on Friday and limiting gold's upside potential, warranting caution from gold bulls.
Gold bulls have the upper hand and are trading above the 100-hour moving average.
Overnight, gold prices found support and rebounded near the 100-hour moving average (MA, 4963.89), a level that has now become support. Nevertheless, the lack of follow-through buying and the range-bound trading over the past two days should warrant caution from bullish traders. This MA is currently providing near-term dynamic support.
Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is expanding in the positive range, suggesting a strengthening bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline, consistent with the tentative recovery tone.
If gold prices hold above the 100-period moving average, the intraday risk will be skewed to the upside. Conversely, if MACD momentum weakens and the RSI falls below the midline, the recovery will become fragile, and prices may retest moving average support before re-establishing a direction.
(Spot gold hourly chart, source: EasyForex)
At 16:16 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $5012.14 per ounce.
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