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[Wharton Business School Warns: $175 Billion in Revenue at Risk of Refund if Supreme Court Halts Tariffs] ⑴ A new estimate released by the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania's budget model suggests that if the Supreme Court rules President Trump's massive emergency tariffs invalid, over $175 billion in US tariff revenue could be at risk of being refunded. This figure exceeds the combined $127.6 billion in spending by the Department of Transportation and $44.9 billion by the Department of Justice in fiscal year 2025. ⑵ This estimate is based on a bottom-up forecasting model, analyzing specific tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, categorized by product and country. A senior economist at PWBM points out that a court ruling unfavorable to the government would trigger a significant portion of the tariff revenue refund mechanism. ⑶ Trump has consistently touted tariff revenue as an economic achievement. The Congressional Budget Office previously estimated that tariffs could generate approximately $300 billion annually over the next decade. However, the Wharton model shows significant uncertainty regarding this revenue expectation in the face of legal challenges. ⑷ The legal basis for the tariffs is facing judicial review. Trump's complaint about the Supreme Court's delay in ruling on the tariff case reflects the executive branch's anxiety about the judicial process. If the court finds that the application of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act exceeded its authorized scope, the tariffs already collected may face retroactive refunds. The potential refund of $175 billion is enough to have a substantial impact on the US fiscal balance. This amount far exceeds the annual budget of a single federal department, and its implementation would involve complex administrative procedures and fund allocation. The judicial risks of tariff policy are moving from theoretical possibilities to realistic assessments.