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2026-02-20 20:54:45
[Gold Prices Rebound Above $5,000, Driven by Declining European Bond Yields and US-Iran Tensions] ⑴ International gold prices continued their upward trend on Friday, with spot gold rising 0.5% to $5,021.31, poised for a 0.4% weekly gain. New York gold futures also strengthened, with the April contract rising 0.9% to $5,040.10. The combination of geopolitical risks and interest rate expectations continues to support gold. ⑵ The escalating US-Iran tensions remain the core driver of short-term gold prices. Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran on Thursday, setting a 10-15 day deadline for an agreement on its nuclear program, or face dire consequences. This statement has pushed the Middle East situation to a new critical point. ⑶ The simultaneous decline in European bond yields has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold. Analysts at a quantitative commodities research firm pointed out that higher long-term European bond prices mean lower yields, which enhances the attractiveness of gold in terms of pricing. Eurozone government bond yields have fallen for the second consecutive week. (4) Market speculation about the leadership of the European Central Bank exacerbated bond market volatility, while geopolitical tensions amplified safe-haven demand. These two factors combined to increase the relative value of euro-denominated gold. (5) Investors are awaiting upcoming US inflation data to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Personal consumption expenditure data, a preferred inflation indicator by the Fed, will influence expectations regarding the interest rate path. Ahead of the data release, gold is maintaining a high level of fluctuation amidst a confluence of factors.
