Just as the Russia-Ukraine peace talks were beginning to show promise, the US and Iran stirred up new turmoil, and a turning point for gold is imminent.
2026-02-25 20:03:39
On Wednesday (February 25), spot gold prices rose and then fell during the Asian and European sessions. Gold was initially supported by Trump's brief and tough remarks on geopolitical issues in his State of the Union address in the morning. However, in the afternoon, Zelensky's statement that negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States might be held in early March caused gold prices to fall due to the easing of geopolitical risks. Spot gold is currently trading around 5168, up 0.57%.
In addition to urgently pricing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global investors are closely watching the US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland. The outcome of these talks will directly determine the direction of the Middle East situation and profoundly affect the volatility of commodity and foreign exchange markets.
On the eve of Thursday's meeting, US President Trump continued to exert strong pressure on Iran, warning that if Iran does not abandon its nuclear program, he will take military action against Tehran. He stated on social media that a breakdown in negotiations would have serious consequences for Iran.
This statement further fueled market risk aversion, directly benefiting safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen.
The 10-15 day negotiation window set by Trump for Iran will expire in early March, and the risk of a breakdown in negotiations remains high, providing solid upward support for gold.
Despite the Iranian Foreign Minister's optimistic outlook on the negotiations, stating that an agreement was "within reach," Iran has remained steadfast in its core position, pledging never to develop nuclear weapons while also refusing to relinquish its legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear technology.
To strengthen its strategic deterrence, Iran recently conducted military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route, and held joint naval exercises with Russia in the Gulf of Oman. The escalating regional tensions have continued to support safe-haven buying of gold.
Uncertainty surrounding domestic policies in the United States is also providing upward momentum for gold.
The U.S. Supreme Court overturned the government's ruling to impose additional tariffs, finding that Trump's use of emergency economic powers to advance the tariff agenda exceeded his authority and directly disrupted the existing trade policy landscape.
Despite Trump's subsequent announcement of a 10% tariff on global trade and his hints that the rate could be raised to 15%, along with his threat to impose even higher tariffs on countries that violate trade agreements, the market remains concerned that countries may use this opportunity to demand revisions to existing agreements. Expectations of a global trade contraction continue to suppress market risk appetite, further enhancing the investment value of gold.
The CEO of Naftogaz, Ukraine's state-owned gas company, reported a new round of attacks by Russia on gas production facilities in Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions of Ukraine. Meanwhile, US Presidential Envoy Steve Witkov stated that Russia has demonstrated a genuine willingness to communicate in negotiations regarding the Ukraine crisis, and Zelenskyy has just announced the possibility of peace talks starting in early March.
February 24th marks the fourth anniversary of the escalation of the Ukraine crisis. The difficult negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the long road to peace, and the stalemate on the battlefield have profoundly impacted public sentiment in Ukraine. On the one hand, the prolonged strain has led to a more realistic expectation of "guaranteed peace" among the people; on the other hand, territory and sovereignty are seen as inviolable red lines. Recent polls show that a majority of the public supports ending the conflict through negotiations but explicitly opposes any form of territorial concessions. Diplomatically, over the past year, Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have engaged in multiple rounds of contact through various channels regarding ceasefire arrangements and security guarantees, but core differences remain evident. Ukrainian President Zelensky recently reiterated that Ukraine is willing to make genuine compromises for peace but will not accept conditions that compromise its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Supported by both geopolitical conflicts and policy uncertainties, gold, with its scarcity and safe-haven properties, has become the optimal choice for global capital seeking refuge.
The developments in the Middle East, the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations, and the subsequent evolution of US trade policy will all be key variables driving gold price fluctuations. Gold is expected to maintain its strong performance until there are clear signs of geopolitical easing. Similarly, if no new deteriorating factors emerge, gold prices may face a situation where bulls take profits.
From a technical perspective, spot gold is consolidating within the range formed by the upper channel line and the 5-day moving average. The market is awaiting new catalysts, which could be geopolitical events, the transmission of risks from the US stock market, or new conflicts related to the trade war.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 20:01 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $5,182 per ounce.
In addition to urgently pricing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global investors are closely watching the US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland. The outcome of these talks will directly determine the direction of the Middle East situation and profoundly affect the volatility of commodity and foreign exchange markets.
Trump intensifies pressure as the negotiation window approaches, fueling risk aversion.
On the eve of Thursday's meeting, US President Trump continued to exert strong pressure on Iran, warning that if Iran does not abandon its nuclear program, he will take military action against Tehran. He stated on social media that a breakdown in negotiations would have serious consequences for Iran.
This statement further fueled market risk aversion, directly benefiting safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen.
The 10-15 day negotiation window set by Trump for Iran will expire in early March, and the risk of a breakdown in negotiations remains high, providing solid upward support for gold.
Despite the Iranian Foreign Minister's optimistic outlook on the negotiations, stating that an agreement was "within reach," Iran has remained steadfast in its core position, pledging never to develop nuclear weapons while also refusing to relinquish its legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear technology.
To strengthen its strategic deterrence, Iran recently conducted military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route, and held joint naval exercises with Russia in the Gulf of Oman. The escalating regional tensions have continued to support safe-haven buying of gold.
The sudden shift in US trade policy and the tariff ruling have provided further upward momentum for gold.
Uncertainty surrounding domestic policies in the United States is also providing upward momentum for gold.
The U.S. Supreme Court overturned the government's ruling to impose additional tariffs, finding that Trump's use of emergency economic powers to advance the tariff agenda exceeded his authority and directly disrupted the existing trade policy landscape.
Despite Trump's subsequent announcement of a 10% tariff on global trade and his hints that the rate could be raised to 15%, along with his threat to impose even higher tariffs on countries that violate trade agreements, the market remains concerned that countries may use this opportunity to demand revisions to existing agreements. Expectations of a global trade contraction continue to suppress market risk appetite, further enhancing the investment value of gold.
Ukraine's gas pipeline was attacked; Zelenskyy expressed his hope for peace talks.
The CEO of Naftogaz, Ukraine's state-owned gas company, reported a new round of attacks by Russia on gas production facilities in Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions of Ukraine. Meanwhile, US Presidential Envoy Steve Witkov stated that Russia has demonstrated a genuine willingness to communicate in negotiations regarding the Ukraine crisis, and Zelenskyy has just announced the possibility of peace talks starting in early March.
February 24th marks the fourth anniversary of the escalation of the Ukraine crisis. The difficult negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the long road to peace, and the stalemate on the battlefield have profoundly impacted public sentiment in Ukraine. On the one hand, the prolonged strain has led to a more realistic expectation of "guaranteed peace" among the people; on the other hand, territory and sovereignty are seen as inviolable red lines. Recent polls show that a majority of the public supports ending the conflict through negotiations but explicitly opposes any form of territorial concessions. Diplomatically, over the past year, Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have engaged in multiple rounds of contact through various channels regarding ceasefire arrangements and security guarantees, but core differences remain evident. Ukrainian President Zelensky recently reiterated that Ukraine is willing to make genuine compromises for peace but will not accept conditions that compromise its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Summary and Technical Analysis:
Supported by both geopolitical conflicts and policy uncertainties, gold, with its scarcity and safe-haven properties, has become the optimal choice for global capital seeking refuge.
The developments in the Middle East, the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations, and the subsequent evolution of US trade policy will all be key variables driving gold price fluctuations. Gold is expected to maintain its strong performance until there are clear signs of geopolitical easing. Similarly, if no new deteriorating factors emerge, gold prices may face a situation where bulls take profits.
From a technical perspective, spot gold is consolidating within the range formed by the upper channel line and the 5-day moving average. The market is awaiting new catalysts, which could be geopolitical events, the transmission of risks from the US stock market, or new conflicts related to the trade war.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 20:01 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $5,182 per ounce.
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