US-Iran Talks Approaching: A Comprehensive Overview of the Iranian Nuclear Issue and the Current Situation
2026-02-25 21:01:26
During the negotiation window, the United States deployed its largest air combat force in the Middle East in decades. The Trump administration used the wave of anti-theocratic protests in Iran to pressure Tehran into reaching an agreement, directly affecting the price trends of crude oil, gold, and safe-haven assets.
This negotiation is not only about the nuclear issue itself, but also determines whether the Middle East will be at war or at peace in the short term, as well as the pace of fluctuations in global energy and financial markets.
Iran’s nuclear program began during the Cold War and has evolved into the most dangerous geopolitical trigger in the Middle East through regime change, international power struggles, agreements reached and broken.
In 1967, Iran, relying on the United States' "peaceful use of atomic energy" program, received the Tehran research reactor, and its nuclear program officially began.
1979 – The Pahlavi dynasty in Iran collapsed, the Islamic Revolution came to power, the hostage crisis between the United States and Iran broke out, and Iran's nuclear program came to a standstill under international sanctions.
August 2002 – Iran’s secret Natanz nuclear enrichment facility was exposed, and the nuclear conflict between the West and Iran officially surfaced; the National Council of Iranian Resistance (NCRI) disclosed in Washington that Iran was secretly building a large nuclear facility. Iran subsequently admitted the existence of the facility, but insisted that it was used for peaceful power generation.
June 2003 – Britain, France, and Germany led the start of diplomatic negotiations with Iran on the nuclear issue.
October 2003 – Iran suspended uranium enrichment activities under international pressure, temporarily easing the nuclear tensions.
February 2006 – After a hardline president came to power in Iran, the country restarted uranium enrichment, three European countries withdrew from negotiations, and the nuclear confrontation escalated.
June 2009 – Controversy surrounding the Iranian elections sparked protests by the Green Movement, and domestic political turmoil exacerbated the complexity of the nuclear issue.
In October 2009—during the Obama administration—the US and Iran opened secret communication channels in Oman, restarting diplomatic probing.
July 2012 – The US and Iran held secret direct talks in Oman, laying the groundwork for a subsequent nuclear agreement.
July 2015 – The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was reached, with Iran restricting its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, leading to a temporary easing of regional geopolitical risks.
May 8, 2018 – The Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and resumed its maximum pressure campaign against Iran.
May 8, 2019 – Iran gradually withdraws from its commitments under the agreement, regional attacks occur frequently, and geopolitical risks rise rapidly.
January 3, 2020 – A U.S. airstrike killed Qassem Soleimani, the top commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite special forces, bringing the risk of direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran to its peak.
January 8, 2020 – Iran retaliated with missiles against a US military base and also mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, bringing the regional situation to the brink of collapse.
July 2, 2020 – Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility was attacked, with Israel accused of being behind the attack.
April 6, 2021 – The Biden administration’s push to revive the Iran nuclear deal through Vienna negotiations remains unsuccessful.
April 11, 2021 – The Natanz nuclear facility was attacked again, exacerbating nuclear security risks.
April 16, 2021 — Iran's uranium enrichment level reached 60%, nearing the weapons-grade threshold, significantly increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation.
February 24, 2022 – The conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, and Iranian drones and missiles became important equipment for Russia, increasing geopolitical linkages.
July 17, 2022 – Kharrazi, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, stated that Iran possesses the technological means to manufacture nuclear weapons, but has not yet decided whether to do so, marking a breakthrough in its nuclear deterrent capabilities.
Since 2023, the war in the Middle East has spread across the board, and the confrontation between Iran and Israel and the United States has escalated from proxy conflict to direct combat, with the nuclear issue deeply intertwined with regional wars.
October 7, 2023 – Hamas launches a surprise attack on Israel, triggering the Israel-Hamas war. Iran openly supports Hamas, and the conflict spreads throughout the region.
November 19, 2023 – Houthi rebels launched attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea, directly threatening the security of global energy transport routes.
April 14, 2024 — Iran launches a large-scale direct attack on Israel, which is intercepted by the US-Israel coalition, raising the risk of a full-scale regional war.
April 19, 2024 – Israel retaliates against attacks on Iranian air defense systems, normalizing direct confrontation between Iran and Israel.
July 31, 2024 – Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Israel claimed responsibility for the attack, escalating the geopolitical assassination.
September 27, 2024 – An Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, and Iran’s regional allies suffered a series of blows.
October 1, 2024 – Iran launched another missile attack on Israel, which was intercepted by the US-Israel coalition, escalating the confrontation.
October 16, 2024 – Hamas leader Sinwald was killed, marking a turning point in the Israeli-Hassan War.
October 26, 2024 – Israel launches its first public strike on Iranian soil, marking the beginning of direct war between the two countries.
June 9-24, 2025 – Iran rejects the U.S. nuclear proposal, a full-scale war breaks out between Iran and Israel, the U.S. military intervenes to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump subsequently announces a ceasefire, and the conflict is temporarily suspended.
August to September 2025 – Three European countries initiate the fast-track process to restore UN sanctions against Iran, the UN fully reinstates sanctions, and external economic pressure on Iran reaches its peak.
External sanctions and military pressure combined have triggered a severe economic and social crisis in Iran, becoming a key variable affecting negotiations and regime stability.
December 28, 2025 – The Iranian rial collapses and inflation spirals out of control, sparking massive protests in Tehran.
January 3, 2026 – Iran’s Supreme Leader orders crackdown on protests, escalating social tensions across the country.
January 8, 2026 – Nationwide protests escalate, the government cuts off the internet and imposes a blockade, and the crackdown results in significant casualties and mass detentions.
Domestic turmoil has weakened Iran's bargaining power and made the regime more inclined to take a hard line against foreign aggression in order to divert attention from internal problems.
Trump's second term saw a return to a hardline approach to Iran, with negotiations oscillating between military pressure and diplomatic probing, and now at a critical juncture.
January 20, 2025 – Trump begins his second term, and his policy toward Iran returns to a hardline, pressure-driven approach.
February 7, 2025 – Iran’s Supreme Leader rejects US-Iran negotiations, temporarily closing the door to diplomatic reconciliation.
March 7, 2025 – Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader seeking a new nuclear agreement.
March 15, 2025 – US airstrikes against Houthi rebels to eliminate forward positions of Iranian regional resistance forces.
From April to May 2025, the US and Iran held five rounds of negotiations in Oman and Rome, achieving limited progress but failing to reach a decisive outcome.
January 13, 2026 – Trump cancels negotiations with Iran and pledges support to Iranian protesters.
January 26, 2026 – US aircraft carrier strike groups will be deployed to the Middle East, maximizing military deterrence.
February 3, 2026 – A maritime and air skirmish occurs between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, significantly increasing the risk of an accidental clash.
February 6, 2026 – The US and Iran resume indirect negotiations in Oman, with senior US military officials involved in the process.
February 17, 2026 – The Geneva talks between the US and Iran take place, and Iran temporarily closes the Strait of Hormuz, directly impacting global energy supplies.
February 26, 2026 – Following the completion of the largest air deployment in Middle East history by the United States, a new round of Geneva negotiations between the US and Iran officially began, becoming a key geopolitical event determining the medium-term trends of crude oil, gold, and the US dollar.
This negotiation is not only about the nuclear issue itself, but also determines whether the Middle East will be at war or at peace in the short term, as well as the pace of fluctuations in global energy and financial markets.
Timeline of the Iranian nuclear issue
Iran’s nuclear program began during the Cold War and has evolved into the most dangerous geopolitical trigger in the Middle East through regime change, international power struggles, agreements reached and broken.
In 1967, Iran, relying on the United States' "peaceful use of atomic energy" program, received the Tehran research reactor, and its nuclear program officially began.
1979 – The Pahlavi dynasty in Iran collapsed, the Islamic Revolution came to power, the hostage crisis between the United States and Iran broke out, and Iran's nuclear program came to a standstill under international sanctions.
August 2002 – Iran’s secret Natanz nuclear enrichment facility was exposed, and the nuclear conflict between the West and Iran officially surfaced; the National Council of Iranian Resistance (NCRI) disclosed in Washington that Iran was secretly building a large nuclear facility. Iran subsequently admitted the existence of the facility, but insisted that it was used for peaceful power generation.
June 2003 – Britain, France, and Germany led the start of diplomatic negotiations with Iran on the nuclear issue.
October 2003 – Iran suspended uranium enrichment activities under international pressure, temporarily easing the nuclear tensions.
February 2006 – After a hardline president came to power in Iran, the country restarted uranium enrichment, three European countries withdrew from negotiations, and the nuclear confrontation escalated.
June 2009 – Controversy surrounding the Iranian elections sparked protests by the Green Movement, and domestic political turmoil exacerbated the complexity of the nuclear issue.
In October 2009—during the Obama administration—the US and Iran opened secret communication channels in Oman, restarting diplomatic probing.
July 2012 – The US and Iran held secret direct talks in Oman, laying the groundwork for a subsequent nuclear agreement.
July 2015 – The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was reached, with Iran restricting its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, leading to a temporary easing of regional geopolitical risks.
May 8, 2018 – The Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and resumed its maximum pressure campaign against Iran.
May 8, 2019 – Iran gradually withdraws from its commitments under the agreement, regional attacks occur frequently, and geopolitical risks rise rapidly.
January 3, 2020 – A U.S. airstrike killed Qassem Soleimani, the top commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite special forces, bringing the risk of direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran to its peak.
January 8, 2020 – Iran retaliated with missiles against a US military base and also mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, bringing the regional situation to the brink of collapse.
July 2, 2020 – Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility was attacked, with Israel accused of being behind the attack.
April 6, 2021 – The Biden administration’s push to revive the Iran nuclear deal through Vienna negotiations remains unsuccessful.
April 11, 2021 – The Natanz nuclear facility was attacked again, exacerbating nuclear security risks.
April 16, 2021 — Iran's uranium enrichment level reached 60%, nearing the weapons-grade threshold, significantly increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation.
February 24, 2022 – The conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, and Iranian drones and missiles became important equipment for Russia, increasing geopolitical linkages.
July 17, 2022 – Kharrazi, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, stated that Iran possesses the technological means to manufacture nuclear weapons, but has not yet decided whether to do so, marking a breakthrough in its nuclear deterrent capabilities.
Recent regional conflicts and the US-Iran confrontation
Since 2023, the war in the Middle East has spread across the board, and the confrontation between Iran and Israel and the United States has escalated from proxy conflict to direct combat, with the nuclear issue deeply intertwined with regional wars.
October 7, 2023 – Hamas launches a surprise attack on Israel, triggering the Israel-Hamas war. Iran openly supports Hamas, and the conflict spreads throughout the region.
November 19, 2023 – Houthi rebels launched attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea, directly threatening the security of global energy transport routes.
April 14, 2024 — Iran launches a large-scale direct attack on Israel, which is intercepted by the US-Israel coalition, raising the risk of a full-scale regional war.
April 19, 2024 – Israel retaliates against attacks on Iranian air defense systems, normalizing direct confrontation between Iran and Israel.
July 31, 2024 – Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Israel claimed responsibility for the attack, escalating the geopolitical assassination.
September 27, 2024 – An Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, and Iran’s regional allies suffered a series of blows.
October 1, 2024 – Iran launched another missile attack on Israel, which was intercepted by the US-Israel coalition, escalating the confrontation.
October 16, 2024 – Hamas leader Sinwald was killed, marking a turning point in the Israeli-Hassan War.
October 26, 2024 – Israel launches its first public strike on Iranian soil, marking the beginning of direct war between the two countries.
June 9-24, 2025 – Iran rejects the U.S. nuclear proposal, a full-scale war breaks out between Iran and Israel, the U.S. military intervenes to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump subsequently announces a ceasefire, and the conflict is temporarily suspended.
August to September 2025 – Three European countries initiate the fast-track process to restore UN sanctions against Iran, the UN fully reinstates sanctions, and external economic pressure on Iran reaches its peak.
Iranian domestic situation
External sanctions and military pressure combined have triggered a severe economic and social crisis in Iran, becoming a key variable affecting negotiations and regime stability.
December 28, 2025 – The Iranian rial collapses and inflation spirals out of control, sparking massive protests in Tehran.
January 3, 2026 – Iran’s Supreme Leader orders crackdown on protests, escalating social tensions across the country.
January 8, 2026 – Nationwide protests escalate, the government cuts off the internet and imposes a blockade, and the crackdown results in significant casualties and mass detentions.
Domestic turmoil has weakened Iran's bargaining power and made the regime more inclined to take a hard line against foreign aggression in order to divert attention from internal problems.
Latest Negotiation Developments
Trump's second term saw a return to a hardline approach to Iran, with negotiations oscillating between military pressure and diplomatic probing, and now at a critical juncture.
January 20, 2025 – Trump begins his second term, and his policy toward Iran returns to a hardline, pressure-driven approach.
February 7, 2025 – Iran’s Supreme Leader rejects US-Iran negotiations, temporarily closing the door to diplomatic reconciliation.
March 7, 2025 – Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader seeking a new nuclear agreement.
March 15, 2025 – US airstrikes against Houthi rebels to eliminate forward positions of Iranian regional resistance forces.
From April to May 2025, the US and Iran held five rounds of negotiations in Oman and Rome, achieving limited progress but failing to reach a decisive outcome.
January 13, 2026 – Trump cancels negotiations with Iran and pledges support to Iranian protesters.
January 26, 2026 – US aircraft carrier strike groups will be deployed to the Middle East, maximizing military deterrence.
February 3, 2026 – A maritime and air skirmish occurs between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, significantly increasing the risk of an accidental clash.
February 6, 2026 – The US and Iran resume indirect negotiations in Oman, with senior US military officials involved in the process.
February 17, 2026 – The Geneva talks between the US and Iran take place, and Iran temporarily closes the Strait of Hormuz, directly impacting global energy supplies.
February 26, 2026 – Following the completion of the largest air deployment in Middle East history by the United States, a new round of Geneva negotiations between the US and Iran officially began, becoming a key geopolitical event determining the medium-term trends of crude oil, gold, and the US dollar.
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