Daniel Oliver, founder of Myrmikan Capital, said that the international accumulation phase of the current gold bull market has officially ended, giving way to the second phase of turmoil driven by pressure on the US credit system.

Oliver argues that the combination of over-leveraged private equity and ever-expanding U.S. Treasury bonds is ensnaring the Federal Reserve. He outlines the mechanisms driving up physical gold and silver prices, pointing to fundamental weaknesses in the broader financial system.



The U.S. national debt currently exceeds $38.5 trillion. Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that net interest payments on the national debt will more than double to $2.1 trillion by 2036. Oliver states that the true debt burden is much higher if the net present value of unfunded liabilities such as Medicare and Social Security is taken into account. He argues that, mathematically, this level of debt is impossible to repay at the current dollar valuation.

He said, "Prices collapse after every huge credit bubble ends, and in turn, the price of gold, denominated in dollars, has to rise for the asset's valuation to make sense ."

This systemic pressure is increasingly linked to the private lending market. Analysts at UBS recently warned that, in the worst-case scenario, private lending default rates could surge to 15% due to the rapid disruption of corporate borrowers by artificial intelligence.

Oliver explained that unlike the 2008 financial crisis, when the Federal Reserve could stimulate the housing market by printing money, rescuing the private equity industry presents different challenges. He pointed out that due to a lack of consumer demand, highly leveraged companies face bankruptcy and cannot be saved simply by injecting liquidity into the banking system.

Oliver stated, "I don't expect to see the kind of stock market crash that happened in 1929 or 2008; instead, I expect gold to surge. "

Due to these macroeconomic pressures and waning confidence in paper financial instruments, the physical metals market is undergoing structural changes. He observed that industrial silver demand is tightening as manufacturers abandon standard inventory models. He noted that companies are stockpiling physical silver directly at their factories, depleting available inventory in the market, due to concerns about supply chain disruptions.

Meanwhile, Oliver emphasized that strained banks are tightening margin requirements for smelters and refineries. He said this is forcing these entities to process less physical metal, becoming a bottleneck restricting gold flows into retail and institutional markets.

Historically, central banks, under market pressure, have held gold reserves roughly equivalent to one-third of their balance sheets . According to his analysis, applying this historical ratio to the current Federal Reserve balance sheet yields a much higher implied gold price. He says, " The gold price has to reach a level that rebalances the Fed's balance sheet; currently, $8,000 would reach about one-third , and $12,000 would reach about half."


Spot gold daily chart source: EasyForex

At 13:24 Beijing time on February 27, spot gold was trading at $5187.65 per ounce.