With the Middle East situation escalating, gold bulls remain in control; will this week's non-farm payrolls data become merely a backdrop?
2026-03-02 15:02:28
On Monday (March 2), spot gold prices fluctuated upwards during the Asian and European sessions, having previously touched a more than one-month high of $5392.77 per ounce. It is currently trading around $5385 per ounce, a daily gain of approximately 2%. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply over the weekend, plunging global markets into turmoil. Specifically, the coordinated military strike by the United States and Israel against Iran resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Meanwhile, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint, raising the risk of a protracted war in the Middle East. This, in turn, provided a strong boost to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, at the start of the new week.
Meanwhile, market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may continue to support gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Therefore, investors should exercise caution before actively establishing bearish positions in gold or preparing for any meaningful pullback.
On Monday, during the Asian and European sessions, the US dollar index fluctuated upwards and is currently trading around 98.25, with a daily increase of about 0.65%. It had previously touched a high of 98.27, the highest level since January 23.
This week, traders will face a flurry of important US macroeconomic data releases at the beginning of the month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later on Monday. This is followed by Wednesday's ADP Private Sector Employment Report and ISM Services PMI, and Friday's highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report. However, market focus will remain on geopolitical developments, which will significantly impact global risk sentiment and play a key role in driving demand for safe-haven gold.
Following last week's breakout above the $5,200 resistance level, Monday's strong rally in gold prices is favorable for bulls. Furthermore, the MACD indicator is above the signal line and in positive territory, with the histogram expanding, supporting the building of bullish momentum after the latest surge in gold prices.
Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is in overbought territory, indicating slightly extreme upward pressure. On the downside, initial support is around $5260, the starting point of the recent consolidation range, followed by stronger support around $5200, which guarded the previous trading range. A break below $5200 would target the next support level at $5180.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at $5,400. A sustained break above this level would open up room for a continuation of the upward trend; failure to clear this obstacle could make gold prices vulnerable to pullbacks and fall towards the aforementioned support level.
(Spot gold 4-hour chart, source: FX678)
At 15:02 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $5388.26 per ounce.
Meanwhile, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint, raising the risk of a protracted war in the Middle East. This, in turn, provided a strong boost to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, at the start of the new week.
Meanwhile, market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may continue to support gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Therefore, investors should exercise caution before actively establishing bearish positions in gold or preparing for any meaningful pullback.
On Monday, during the Asian and European sessions, the US dollar index fluctuated upwards and is currently trading around 98.25, with a daily increase of about 0.65%. It had previously touched a high of 98.27, the highest level since January 23.
This week, traders will face a flurry of important US macroeconomic data releases at the beginning of the month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later on Monday. This is followed by Wednesday's ADP Private Sector Employment Report and ISM Services PMI, and Friday's highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report. However, market focus will remain on geopolitical developments, which will significantly impact global risk sentiment and play a key role in driving demand for safe-haven gold.
Gold needs to hold above $5,400 to provide a basis for further gains.
Following last week's breakout above the $5,200 resistance level, Monday's strong rally in gold prices is favorable for bulls. Furthermore, the MACD indicator is above the signal line and in positive territory, with the histogram expanding, supporting the building of bullish momentum after the latest surge in gold prices.
Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is in overbought territory, indicating slightly extreme upward pressure. On the downside, initial support is around $5260, the starting point of the recent consolidation range, followed by stronger support around $5200, which guarded the previous trading range. A break below $5200 would target the next support level at $5180.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at $5,400. A sustained break above this level would open up room for a continuation of the upward trend; failure to clear this obstacle could make gold prices vulnerable to pullbacks and fall towards the aforementioned support level.
(Spot gold 4-hour chart, source: FX678)
At 15:02 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $5388.26 per ounce.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
