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Live Updates  >  Live Update Details

2026-03-03 08:54:18

[Trump's fluctuating objectives in the Iran conflict leave the US military facing a "wait-and-see" dilemma] 1. Frequent changes in objectives and confusing policy signals: On Sunday alone, Trump and his allies gave at least two different objectives for the operation against Iran—from "weakening the nuclear and missile threat" to calling on the Iranian people to "take back your country." The White House subsequently reiterated its intention not to bring about regime change, but Trump reiterated support for the opposition in a video, making it difficult for outsiders to grasp the end of the war. 2. The timeframe also wavers: Trump initially said the attacks would last "a week or longer," but the next day said it "has always been a four-week process." This uncertainty makes it difficult for the US military to plan the mission cycle and exacerbates the confusion among regional allies. 3. Strategic logic is questioned: Experts at the Cato Institute pointed out that the White House seems to have failed to predetermine objectives, instead adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, resulting in "logical inconsistencies" in its policies. Former officials revealed that the government lacks contingency plans for the collapse of the Iranian regime, and if hastily formulated, they may not have undergone interagency review. 4. Different objectives lead to different outcomes: If the goal is limited to destroying nuclear facilities and missile factories, the US military may be able to withdraw relatively quickly; if the aim is regime change, long-term intervention is necessary. Trump employed a similar strategy in Venezuela—retaining the regime but declaring victory—and may replicate this model this time. 5. Real-world challenges: The regime may not collapse, and an agreement is unlikely: Experts point out that if the Revolutionary Guard and other repressive mechanisms remain intact, the possibility of popular overthrow of the regime is limited. Meanwhile, Iranian leader Larijani has recently been traveling throughout the region, possibly seeking an agreement or laying the groundwork for succession. Trump faces the risk of "neither achieving regime change nor reaching an agreement, and being unable to fulfill his promises to the Iranian people."

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