On March 5, 2026, the joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran entered its seventh day. According to publicly available statistics, the conflict has resulted in over a thousand deaths and has spread to multiple fronts, including Lebanon and the Indian Ocean. On the surface, the situation remains in a phase of intense confrontation. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently stated that the current military operation "could last four, six, or even eight weeks." Meanwhile, a US submarine sank an Iranian warship in international waters of the Indian Ocean, indicating that the conflict is expanding into the sea. In the short term, the conflict is unlikely to end quickly.



However, if we observe the current situation within a more complete logical chain, from the military posture and political structure to diplomatic trends and market reactions, some noteworthy changes have begun to emerge: the intensity of Iran's attacks has decreased, the US and Israel have achieved some of their initial objectives, and external mediation forces are gradually intervening. These factors combined have caused the overall risk situation to shift from "continuously rising" to "high-level fluctuations with slight easing." The war is certainly far from over, but to some extent, an exit strategy is already emerging.

Military aspect: Iran's attack intensity has significantly decreased.

The first change occurred on the military front. In the early stages of the war, Iran launched multiple missile salvos against Israel daily, peaking at over twenty salvos. However, according to Western and Israeli intelligence assessments, within five days of the start of the war, the intensity of Iranian missile launches decreased by more than 80%, and the number of drone launches also significantly reduced.

Meanwhile, Israeli and American airstrikes continue against Iranian missile launchers and related production facilities. Multiple sources indicate that Iran has launched over 500 missiles, and its inventory of medium- and long-range missiles is being rapidly depleted, while its production capacity is struggling to keep pace with the battlefield's attrition rate in the short term. The Iranian defense department continues to emphasize the retention of some high-end weapon systems, such as the Fateh hypersonic missile, but its overall saturation attack capability is significantly limited compared to the early stages of the war.

Corresponding to this change, Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel began a gradual resumption of operations. Starting March 2nd, the airport reopened in a "very limited mode," and entered a gradual recovery phase on the night of March 4th and 5th. On the morning of March 5th, the first repatriation flights successfully landed, bringing back Israeli citizens stranded overseas from Europe. Israeli Transport Minister Miri Regev stated that flight operations would gradually expand, with limited outbound flights expected to begin on March 7th. Currently, the airport is operating 24 hours a day, but remains under strict supervision by the Homeland Defense Command: only 1-2 flights are allowed to take off and land per hour, with priority given to repatriating citizens; ordinary passengers are not yet permitted to travel.

In most regional conflicts, the restoration of the civil aviation system usually signifies a significant decrease in immediate survival threats. The reopening of airports and the return of people to their home countries are often the most direct manifestations of an improved security environment.

Of course, the military operations themselves are still ongoing. The sinking of an Iranian warship by the US military in the Indian Ocean indicates that the battlefront is extending into maritime energy routes. Hergesse also cautioned that the US "cannot intercept all attacks" and anticipates the conflict could last for weeks. In other words, while the intensity of the conflict has decreased, the risk of disruption to shipping lanes in the Gulf remains in the short term.

Political aspect: The power transition in Iran is underway

Simultaneous with the changes on the battlefield is a reshuffling of Iran's internal power structure. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during the previous conflict, Iran temporarily had a provisional body assuming some of the supreme power. Currently, the Parliament of Experts is proceeding with the confirmation process for a new leader. Among various sources, Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is considered one of the most likely candidates. The relevant procedures are still ongoing.

Mojtaba is generally regarded as a hardliner. If he ultimately succeeds, Iran is likely to maintain a confrontational stance in the short term to consolidate its political legitimacy. However, from a risk structure perspective, the transfer of power itself reduces the most extreme uncertainty—namely, internal chaos or the rise of more radical forces caused by a regime vacuum. A stable power structure at least means that there are still clear negotiating partners at the diplomatic level. Without this foundation of political stability, military expenditures could easily escalate into wider regional instability.

Diplomatic Level: Mediation and Contact Are Emerging

Meanwhile, diplomatic channels have gradually become more active. As an important economic partner of Iran and a major global energy consumer, China has begun to promote mediation. On March 5, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that a special envoy for Middle East affairs would travel to the relevant countries to mediate. Previously, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had also spoken with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, emphasizing the need for an immediate ceasefire and the protection of civilian safety. For the Gulf states, the potential for internal chaos in Iran or a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is equally unacceptable.

Meanwhile, some Western media outlets reported that Iran may have indirectly contacted the United States through third parties to discuss ceasefire terms. Iranian officials denied this claim, calling it "psychological warfare," but indirect communication channels are not uncommon historically. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also left room for maneuver, stating that the US had not completely closed the door to a diplomatic solution. President Trump stated at a White House meeting that the US was currently "in a favorable position." This statement emphasized both military superiority and left room for future negotiations.

Overall, a diplomatic framework of "multi-party pressure + indirect communication" is currently taking shape. Although formal negotiations are still some distance away, the situation has shown signs of easing compared to the early stages of the conflict.

Economic aspects: Market sentiment is gradually stabilizing.

Financial markets are often most sensitive to changes in risk. In the early stages of the conflict, global stock markets experienced significant volatility. However, starting March 3rd, the markets gradually stabilized and rebounded. The S&P 500, the European Stoxx 600, and major Asian stock markets all rebounded. Investors generally agreed that while the conflict was serious, the probability of a full-scale escalation into a large-scale regional war in the short term seemed to have decreased. This market assessment echoed signals such as a decrease in the frequency of Iranian attacks on the battlefield and the resumption of some civilian air services in Israel.

Final indicator: Oil price

Throughout this conflict, oil prices have consistently been the most direct indicator of risk. In the early stages of the conflict, international oil prices rose to around $80-82 per barrel due to security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz. However, as the intensity of Iranian attacks decreased, Israeli airspace gradually reopened, Chinese mediation began, and ceasefire rumors emerged, oil prices have fallen from their peak and stabilized.

Hergés' assessment of a "6-8 week war" serves as a reminder to the market that the conflict will not end quickly. However, most investors interpret this statement as indicating that the pace of the war remains under US control, rather than an unlimited escalation. If Chinese mediation makes progress in the coming days, or if Iran's missile stockpile continues to deplete, or even if indirect contact gradually shifts to open negotiations, oil prices may fall further. Conversely, if the conflict in the Indian Ocean escalates, or if regional proxy forces become fully involved, oil prices could rise rapidly again.

Conclusion

The ongoing conflict with Iran, coupled with US military operations in the Indian Ocean and projections of the duration of the conflict, serves as a reminder of the continued uncertainty. However, several key indicators suggest that the most intense phase of military threat may have passed. The gradual reopening of Israeli airspace, the emergence of diplomatic channels, and stabilizing market sentiment all indicate that risks are slowly receding from their peak. This does not signify the end of the war, but rather the entry of the situation into a new phase. In the coming week, the progress of diplomatic negotiations and the outcome of the mediation efforts by the Chinese envoy are likely to be crucial variables in determining the future direction of the situation. For global markets, oil prices will remain the most honest barometer.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: The joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran has entered its seventh day. What are the characteristics of the current overall situation?
A: On the surface, the confrontation is still intense, the conflict has spread to multiple fronts and the US military has expanded the scope of the war to the sea, but the overall risk has shifted from "continuously rising" to "high-level fluctuations with slight easing", and the exit channel has begun to emerge.

Q: What are the main reasons for the decline in the intensity of Iranian missile launches?
A: First, the stockpile of medium- and long-range missiles is being rapidly depleted, and the production capacity is struggling to keep up with the demand on the battlefield; second, the continued airstrikes by the US and Israel on its missile launchers and production facilities have weakened its strike capabilities.

Q: What impact will the power transition of Iran's Supreme Leader have on the situation?
A: Although the popular candidate Mojtaba may maintain a confrontational stance if he takes office, the transfer of power reduces the risk of a power vacuum, preserves a clear target for diplomatic negotiations, and avoids further instability.

Q: What role did China play in mediating this conflict?
A: The Chinese Foreign Minister spoke with the foreign ministers of relevant countries, emphasizing a ceasefire. On March 5, it was announced that a special envoy for Middle East affairs would travel to the relevant countries to mediate and promote a diplomatic framework of "multi-party pressure + indirect communication".

Q: Why have international oil prices fallen from their peak and stabilized?
A: As the intensity of Iranian attacks decreased, Israeli airspace was reopened, and rumors of China initiating mediation and a ceasefire emerged, investors believed that the probability of a full-scale escalation of the conflict had decreased, and oil prices stabilized accordingly.