Iran's firm stance of "it will end soon" triggers a gold price rebound; Wall Street awaits a miracle in inflation data.
2026-03-10 13:52:16
Spot gold continued its overnight rebound in Asian trading on Tuesday (March 10), finding support near the psychological level of $5,000 and attracting follow-up buying. It is currently trading around $5,170 per ounce, up about 0.65% on the day. Geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven demand, and although a stronger dollar and inflation concerns have limited gains, gold prices have maintained a modest rebound.
Market focus remains on the latest developments in the eleventh day of the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Iran’s strong response to Trump’s statement that the conflict would “end soon” has reinforced expectations of a protracted war and supported gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Iranian officials dismissed Trump's claim that the "war with Iran will end soon" as "nonsense." The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) made it clear that the end of the war "is decided by Tehran, not Washington," and that regional security "either everyone enjoys it, or nobody enjoys it."
Since the inauguration of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's hardline stance has not softened, its proxy network remains active, and missile threats continue, causing market optimism for a short-term end to the conflict to cool rapidly.
This statement directly boosted the geopolitical risk premium, reigniting safe-haven buying in gold and limiting further downside potential during the day.
On Tuesday during Asian trading hours, US crude oil prices fell sharply, after dropping more than 10% at one point due to the G7's consideration of releasing oil reserves and Trump's consideration of "easing" sanctions on Russian oil. However, concerns about supply disruptions caused by the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz helped oil prices recover some of their losses. US crude oil is currently trading around $88.60 per barrel, down about 6.5% on the day.
(US crude oil 4-hour chart, source: FX678)
High and volatile energy prices have fueled inflation expectations again, with markets worried that a continued energy shock will push up the CPI, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut path faces greater uncertainty.
Inflationary pressures have raised real yields on US Treasury bonds, putting short-term pressure on non-interest-bearing gold. However, geopolitical uncertainties provide stronger safe-haven support, and gold prices have remained resilient overall.
The dollar index retreated from its three-month high of 99.69 reached in the previous session, weakening overnight and making gold more attractive to holders of non-dollar currencies. During Tuesday's Asian session, the dollar index traded in a narrow range around 98.85.
However, expectations of "higher and longer" interest rates from the Federal Reserve still dominate, with the market postponing its first rate cut to September or even later. Rising opportunity costs are putting pressure on gold, but demand for inflation hedging is beginning to offset some of the negative impact. The dollar's performance and statements from Fed officials this week may be key variables for gold prices.
(US Dollar Index 4-hour chart, source: FX678)
The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that gold prices have remained range-bound over the past week, finding support at the rising 200-period exponential moving average (EMA, 5017.70). This level, which coincides with recent lows, has become a key short-term support level.
The MACD indicator line crossed above the signal line, and the positive histogram expanded, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. The RSI is above 50, reinforcing the mildly bullish tone.
On the downside, the recent low of $5,060 forms the first support level, while the more important line of defense is the 200-period EMA dynamic support.
On the upside, the initial resistance is at $5,190 (the recent high), with a break above that level targeting $5,230.
(Spot gold 4-hour chart, source: FX678)
This week's US inflation data will be a new catalyst for gold prices: the February CPI will be released on Wednesday, and the PCE price index will be released on Friday. If the data shows persistent inflation, it will strengthen expectations of "higher and longer" inflation from the Federal Reserve, which is bearish for gold; if it shows a cooling trend, it will reignite bets on interest rate cuts, providing support.
Meanwhile, any diplomatic signals, battlefield developments, or proxy actions from Washington, Tel Aviv, or Tehran could trigger significant volatility. In the short term, gold prices will remain driven by geopolitical factors, while in the medium term, they will depend on inflation data and the Federal Reserve's stance.
At 13:51 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $5172.19 per ounce.
Market focus remains on the latest developments in the eleventh day of the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Iran’s strong response to Trump’s statement that the conflict would “end soon” has reinforced expectations of a protracted war and supported gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Iran dismissed Trump's quick remarks, stating that the end of the war would be decided by Iran.
Iranian officials dismissed Trump's claim that the "war with Iran will end soon" as "nonsense." The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) made it clear that the end of the war "is decided by Tehran, not Washington," and that regional security "either everyone enjoys it, or nobody enjoys it."
Since the inauguration of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's hardline stance has not softened, its proxy network remains active, and missile threats continue, causing market optimism for a short-term end to the conflict to cool rapidly.
This statement directly boosted the geopolitical risk premium, reigniting safe-haven buying in gold and limiting further downside potential during the day.
Oil prices rebounded but fluctuated wildly, and inflation expectations rose again.
On Tuesday during Asian trading hours, US crude oil prices fell sharply, after dropping more than 10% at one point due to the G7's consideration of releasing oil reserves and Trump's consideration of "easing" sanctions on Russian oil. However, concerns about supply disruptions caused by the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz helped oil prices recover some of their losses. US crude oil is currently trading around $88.60 per barrel, down about 6.5% on the day.
(US crude oil 4-hour chart, source: FX678)
High and volatile energy prices have fueled inflation expectations again, with markets worried that a continued energy shock will push up the CPI, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut path faces greater uncertainty.
Inflationary pressures have raised real yields on US Treasury bonds, putting short-term pressure on non-interest-bearing gold. However, geopolitical uncertainties provide stronger safe-haven support, and gold prices have remained resilient overall.
The dollar retreated from its March highs, and the Fed's rate-cutting path remains uncertain.
The dollar index retreated from its three-month high of 99.69 reached in the previous session, weakening overnight and making gold more attractive to holders of non-dollar currencies. During Tuesday's Asian session, the dollar index traded in a narrow range around 98.85.
However, expectations of "higher and longer" interest rates from the Federal Reserve still dominate, with the market postponing its first rate cut to September or even later. Rising opportunity costs are putting pressure on gold, but demand for inflation hedging is beginning to offset some of the negative impact. The dollar's performance and statements from Fed officials this week may be key variables for gold prices.
(US Dollar Index 4-hour chart, source: FX678)
The 4-hour chart shows the 200-period EMA providing support.
The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that gold prices have remained range-bound over the past week, finding support at the rising 200-period exponential moving average (EMA, 5017.70). This level, which coincides with recent lows, has become a key short-term support level.
The MACD indicator line crossed above the signal line, and the positive histogram expanded, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. The RSI is above 50, reinforcing the mildly bullish tone.
On the downside, the recent low of $5,060 forms the first support level, while the more important line of defense is the 200-period EMA dynamic support.
On the upside, the initial resistance is at $5,190 (the recent high), with a break above that level targeting $5,230.
(Spot gold 4-hour chart, source: FX678)
Focus on this week's CPI and PCE data; geopolitical tensions continue to dominate volatility.
This week's US inflation data will be a new catalyst for gold prices: the February CPI will be released on Wednesday, and the PCE price index will be released on Friday. If the data shows persistent inflation, it will strengthen expectations of "higher and longer" inflation from the Federal Reserve, which is bearish for gold; if it shows a cooling trend, it will reignite bets on interest rate cuts, providing support.
Meanwhile, any diplomatic signals, battlefield developments, or proxy actions from Washington, Tel Aviv, or Tehran could trigger significant volatility. In the short term, gold prices will remain driven by geopolitical factors, while in the medium term, they will depend on inflation data and the Federal Reserve's stance.
At 13:51 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $5172.19 per ounce.
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